Archive for trading psychology

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On Tilt

As per the previous post, set up my great 3rd monitor. Got the best night’s sleep in weeks, maybe months. Got up this morning (my day this week off from the ICK! regular job), made coffee, fired up the Command Center, watched the pre-market action.

Then, insidiously and without warning, it happened. Made a trade. Small loss. Routine.

Market reversed… caught it, ha! Made another trade, took extra-large position because I was feeling smug. Market went up, but the stock went tick, tick, tick, down, down, down. Sold half the position at a loss. Back up a little, then down, down, down. Sold the other half.

Went On Tilt for the rest of the day. Click that link and read it. I’ve said professional trading is like professional poker. That link was me today. Fully On Tilt.

Now this evening as I’m mopping the blood up off the floor, I’m humbly going back to What I Know. Run an Advanced Analyzer scan on every stock that finished significantly up or down. Study daily, 30min, 15min, 10min, 5min, 3min, and 1min charts of each of those stocks. Take notes with a pen and paper. See if there’s anything new happening, or if I just wasn’t paying attention to my old notes. Where are they, anyway? Under a pile of bills and other papers on the desk or the bookshelf, somewhere. How long since I’ve actually looked at them? Yeah, I can recite them all, but how long since I actually read them?

I read Trader-X’s post this weekend, and thought, yeah, he’s so right. Well, hell.

Been trading a long time. Been here before. Let’s take a breath and collect our thoughts. Thanksgiving week’s a good time.

I’ve been neglecting the personal site since June. Think I’ll work on it a bit. Owe that to Da Girlz. Hits here will decline. Ad revenue’s bound to fall. ;-)

 

Dave’s Top Trend Analyst

Short of my own notes and the scars on my back, Dave Landry has had as big an influence on my trading as anyone. His concept of the Big Blue Arrow and how we try to see what’s not there can change the way you look at stocks forever.

Now on his section of Wallstrip (remember, Lindsay, it has “Strip” in the name), Dave has his Top Trend Analyst come in the room and give a reading on SNY. It’s hilarious, cute and at the same time makes a poignant statement most traders would do well to heed.

Highbrows and Rednecks: GMTA

I just read this quote in an article on Teresa Lo’s PowerSwings.com site:

Many systematic traders spend the majority of their time searching for good places to initiate. It just seems to be part of human nature to focus on the most hopeful point of the trading cycle. Our research indicated that liquidations are vastly more important than initiations. If you initiate purely randomly, you do surprisingly well with a good liquidation criterion.
(from Dailyii.com)

Except for the $5 words, it’s an idea this old boy completely agrees with. With which this old boy completely agrees. Whatever. Here’s a quote from one of my own ramblings:

Our success doesn’t depend so much on which method we use to enter positions (except for “they say”). It depends on what we do with those positions once entered.

Few positions are losers from the instant we enter until we exit– most are in the money at some point. The gains or losses we eventually take on them are due to our exit strategy.

Simply put: It’s all in the stops, baby. It’s all in the stops.

Ok. I’m outta here for the weekend now, for real.

 

Other People’s Money (OPiuM)

As individuals trading personal accounts, one of the biggest frustrations we encounter can be undercapitalization- not enough money to make that trade, or not enough to be in multiple trades at once. The temptation is to try to rush the process by funding our account with borrowed money. We’d be much better served to take the time to get our personal lives in order first. We’re just so eager to realize that dream of working for ourselves and being wildly successful…

A young man arrived at the gates of a great monastery. One of the elder monks met him at the gate.

“May I help you?” asked the old monk. “Yes,” the young man replied, “I wish to be enlightened, and I will work as hard as it takes to be enlightened as quickly as possible.”

“Very well,” said the old monk, “You will start by sweeping the floors and keeping the grounds clean. You will be allowed one hour in the evening to meditate on a koan.”

The young man asked anxiously, “How long will it take for me to become enlightened?”

The old man thought for a moment, then said “Ten years, perhaps somewhat longer.”

“I don’t have time for that,” said the young man, “What if I work really hard and clean everything quickly, and spend four hours a day meditating. How long then until I am enlightened?”

“In that case, perhaps 15 or 20 years.”

The young man became visibly agitated. “What if I sacrifice everything else and concentrate solely on my enlightenment. How long will it take me then?”

“Then,” said the old monk with a sigh, “you will probably never reach your goal.”

(my apologies to whomever published this… I think I read it in the 1980s and certainly can’t remember where)

What did you use to buy your house? Your car? Many of the gifts you gave last Christmas? Chances are, the answer is credit in one form or other. Credit is just another word for Other People’s Money. Other people, or institutions, risking their money on you for the potential return that you will provide them.

You provide these Other People their return by paying them their money back, plus interest, out of your future earnings. Future earnings which have been devalued by inflation and have often been nearly cut in half by various taxes and expenses. (And if you’re REALLY lucky, that last half is cut in half again by alimony).

The point is: for $1000 of immediate spending power, you must indenture your future self to earn $2000 or more of gross income. Using Other People’s Money is damned expensive! Unfortunately, our society encourages, or rather, coerces us to continue to live further and further beyond our means by making this OPiuM easily and instantly available to us, and all we have to do is secure it with our future earnings… our future labor… our future life.

How does this relate to stock trading? The way we use Other People’s Money is nowhere more important than in our trading. You’ve heard it said a thousand times that you should not risk money you can’t afford to lose. How, then, can you risk money which isn’t even yours?

Risking OPiuM [vs. using it to trade– see below] belies an anxiousness, or even a desperation, in our private lives. That anxiousness is the result of the personal choices we have made for which we’re not yet ready to take responsibility. Those choices more often than not involved our spending money which we haven’t yet earned in order to try to keep up with the Joneses.

I want to add here the point that some of us fool ourselves by trading Other People’s Money that we think is ours. Retirement accounts and education savings, for two. The money in your retirement account belongs to two folks: a chunk of it to Uncle Sam (unless it’s a Roth), and the rest of it belongs- one partial withdrawal at a time- to a senior citizen who doesn’t exist yet. You have contributed to the account for that person, and that Big Balance belongs to them. Doubt it? How much would you end up with if you made a $50,000 withdrawal? What percentage of that balance are you risking? Is that really what you intended to do with money set aside for future security?

The money in the college account- it, plus everything it gains, plus everything else you can come up with will all go to some Institution of Higher Learning at some point. We should not risk our childrens’ education by conning ourselves into believing that we’re “investing” it and will put it all back and then some. If we were that good, we wouldn’t need to borrow it, no?

 

Now the good news. I’ve been very careful to point out that we should not risk money which isn’t ours. That’s not to say that we shouldn’t trade with money which isn’t ours. Is there a place for OPiuM in our trading? Absolutely!

When we are calculating how much we wish to risk on a trade, we should only consider the balance that’s actually our own money. However, in many cases we must use Other People’s Money in order to risk the correct amount of our money to follow our trading plan. Consider the following example:

Bob has a trading account with a total balance of $40,000. Of that total amount, $10,000 is free-and-clear cash from a savings account, money that would be painful to lose, but which Bob owes to nobody and which would not destroy his way of life if he lost it.

In his trading, Bob is using a common method of placing 1% of his money at risk with each trade. Since his account actually contains $10,000 of his money (vs. money he owes back to a mortgage company or Citibank), his risk on each trade should be 1% of $10,000, or $100.

This morning, Bob’s got a pristine setup on Wal-Mart at $48 a share. WMT had a gap opening, a minor run, and a slight pullback. Then the chart prints a beautiful Dummy Spot where Bob can enter in the direction of the primary trend with an initial risk of only 8 cents per share.

In order to risk $100 with an 8-cent stop, Bob must buy 100/.08 or 1250 shares, which will cost 1250×48, or $60,000.

If Bob only had his “pure” $10,000 in his account, he would not be able to follow his trading plan and would miss a high-probability trade. He might then be tempted to try the trade anyway, using a smaller position or buying calls. Either way he’s not trading his plan, and he’s bound to end up frustrated, or even worse, putting too much money at risk.

That’s right, having too little money in your account can cause you to risk too much!

Now if Bob decides to add some money to his account from a second mortgage or whatever, he must be absolutely sure that he will never go on tilt and risk any of it. He should never fund his account with any OPiuM until he has proven through a significant number of trades (not just after a couple of lucky ones) that he can at least maintain the balance of his own money in the account.

 

What if Bob has none of his own money in his trading account? What if it’s all from cash advances on the Visa, money he got from secretly pawning his wife’s necklace, and a couple thousand he borrowed from his cousin Bubba, who hit it big at the boats?

My only advice to Bob in that case would be to immediately STOP TRADING, render back to Caesar what is Caesar’s, to Visa what is Visa’s, and to Bubba what is Bubba’s.

Then I would ask Bob to formulate a plan. This plan would focus first on reducing his spending below what he brings home (not what he grosses), and to forget about the freaking Joneses. He would then begin the long, painful process of paying off his credit card debt and accumulating some real, free-and-clear savings. In other words, he would begin to take personal responsibility for his decisions and his future.

This process will likely take three to ten years, and will be as difficult as kicking a heroin addiction. Bob will backslide more than once. He will also find out who his real friends are.

But when he comes out the other end, Bob will be ready to trade. He may have been studying and paper trading along the way, which reduces the number of times he’ll have to “blow up” before he gets some traction. He’ll be able to afford to lose 1% of his money many times in a row, then when the occasional windfall comes along, he makes it all back, plus some. And then he’s on his way…

During his tenure with his nose to the grindstone, Bob would have been learning, even if unknowingly, some very important lessons about what really matters in life. What he needs, what he can do without. What really brings contentment, versus what merely distracts one from one’s worries. Perhaps he’ll learn that he has a stregth of character that he was unaware of before.

And as the old monk in the earlier quote may point out, Bob would have become a screaming success in the way that really matters, and would have learned that much of what he thought was important before would have merely delayed him on his real journey.


Reality Check (06 Sep 2006)

Today’s NDX chart as revealed thru the Qs:

QQQQ
 
Hanging Man

The Hanging Man is a bearish reversal pattern that can also mark a top or resistance level. Forming after an advance, a Hanging Man signals that selling pressure is starting to increase. The low of the long lower shadow confirms that sellers pushed prices lower during the session. Even though the bulls regained their footing and drove prices higher by the finish, the appearance of selling pressure raises the yellow flag. As with the Hammer, a Hanging Man requires bearish confirmation before action. Such confirmation can come as a gap down or long black candlestick on heavy volume. (from stockcharts.com)

That’s what I get for hurrying and not paying attention. Check out the chart of the Qs I posted yesterday. Look familiar? The 17th-century rice traders are right again. And I have no excuse at all. I’ve been familiar with candlestick formations since the early 1990s. And yes, I own the book.

Jeez.

 

Not Just Hindsight: Journaling and Following Trades As They Unfold

Many of my posts are bascially taken from my trading journal (which I keep entirely on a Hipster PDA). They include trades where I have capital at risk as well as paper trades. I like to post the setups and trades as they evolve vs. looking backwards later and doing the “woulda, coulda, shoulda” boogie. It’s much more useful in identifying opportunities for improvement in my methodology (if I have anything that could be called such).

If we operate only through the rose-colored glasses of memory, the hindsight dance is as useful with stock trading as it is with past relationships, that is, largely worthless. We need to know what we were thinking when we made the bad decision, and what information we were basing that decision on, in order to avoid repeating our errors.

It’s easy enough to look back at a situation, or a trade, and say “it was a huge mistake” or “it was a great call.” But what does that tell us about what to do in the current situation, or how to avoid getting into the same spot in the future? Not a damned thing, unless you consider “Don’t make mistakes” to be useful advice to give a human. We need more specific information… exactly where we should have turned left last time when instead we turned right.

What I (and many others) have found most useful, in both my trading and my personal life, is to keep a record of situations as they unfold, i.e. a journal. It enables us to look back later at what I was thinking “in the moment” and discern at what point and in which specific decisions and judgements was my thinking… stinking.

Then, when we find ourselves in the same situation in the future (and we all do, don’t we?), we will have the chance to make a different decision at the appropriate crossroad. Whether we actually make a different decision, well, that’s more about personal growth, our true primary journey on the old Third Stone from the Sun.

Money Heaven

At some point in every trader’s career, usually after he or she has witnessed their first major market decline, they arrive at the same question:

When the market drops, where does all that money go?

First of all, let me just say that it’s not the evil short sellers. If a company has 1 billion shares of stock outstanding, and there are 50 million shares sold short, when the stock declines the value lost on the other 950 million shares doesn’t go directly into anyone’s pocket. Please note that I said directly.(see below)

My first response to the Big Question is to answer it with another question - - the old Zen Koan from elementary school:

Where do the words go when you erase them from the chalkboard?

… “No, not the chalk, the words.”

If they press, I go into a long, boring dissertation about the liquidity drained from the equity market being the result of an inflationary oversupply of devalued dollars by a zealous Fed intent on fueling the acid train to hell that has become of our consumption-based immediate-gratification economy. That always clears things up.

Eventually I give them what many find a more satisfactory answer:

“It goes to Money Heaven.”

What’s the real answer? It’s that all that value doesn’t really vanish into thin air. It’s just transferred in a somewhat counterintuitive manner. Here’s a great article explaining the quite plausible alternative to Money Heaven.

13 July 06: GOOG / BRCM Arbitrage? Or Am I Just Crazy?

Due to the market’s recent vascilliations, I’m left in the somewhat unusual position of being long BRCM and short GOOG at the same time. Now that may sound like some oddball way to arbitrage the volatility difference between these two, but that’s not at all what it is. And it’s certainly not an attempt at a straddle. I’d need a really long inseam to avoid those barbs!

My positions are in complete compliance with Da Rules. Rule #1 (or 3, I forget) is to always be aware of your time frame. I’m a firm believer that changing time frames after a trade is entered is one of the biggest pitfalls in trading, usually because it’s done out of the subconscious need to find a way to avoid being proven wrong.

I’ve used the example before that it’s perfectly alright to do a daytrade short sale on a stock that’s in a strong long-term uptrend; the two timeframes have nothing to do with each other. Trade within the appropriate time frame. Move with the groove. Work your mojo, grasshoppa.

The short on Google is based on a weekly chart, with position sizing and stop to match. The long on Broadcom is based on a daily chart, ditto ditto ditto.

Will these positions make me rich? Hell if I know! All I know for sure is exactly how much I stand to lose if/when I’m wrong, and that it’s an amount I’m comfortable with. Mandatory before entering any trade, you see. I’ll flip either of ‘em in a heartbeat if the chart tells me to.

Cheers. If gas goes up much more, it may be cheaper to pour Jack Daniels in my tank!!

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