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What Would You Do If…

…your years of hard work finally paid off, you discovered your Holy Grail of a trading system, and your trading became so consistently successful that, with the compounding effect, your future income was virtually unlimited?

..you won the Powerball?

…everything you ever thought you wanted was suddenly available?

What would you really do?

***

This is a post title I’ve had collecting dust for years (unfortunately, every time I say “What Would You Do” I keep hearing that crazy song from Team America in my head). I guess it’s about time I tried to get this stuff onto paper, or pixels.

No sooner have I attempted to put pen to paper, however, than the post starts turning into a novel, as have so many ideas I leave on the back burner for too long. So the article itself will be separate, much longer, and may require that you ingest a good stimulant if you want to read all the way through it.

This post is more of an introduction.

The idea and the urge to write the article (novel) were brought back to the forefront of my ever-fading attention over the past week or so by a few things: one was a post by Bass Ackward Trader over at Move the Markets called Simple Question, which reminded me of the Schadenfreude phenomenon.

Another was a great email I got from a reader in Germany, suggesting I host a StrategyDesk Backtesting Contest, where I answered that I doubted anyone who had developed a really, really successful strategy would be eager to share the details publicly, although as you know, many of us exchange ideas regularly via email with each other. And as I wrote that note, I remembered the post I needed to compose.

Finally, a recent comment by Brett reminded me that I still owe everyone the results of that big backtesting study I did back in the Spring and Summer, which permanently changed the way I trade. With those changes, and the potential positive effects they might bring, I had to revisit the motives behind my trading once again, which- you guessed it- brings us back to that darned novel.

Where will I be going with the article? Here’s a teaser: I was at a good friend’s house for supper a year or two ago. This friend and his wife have the uncanny knack of inviting me to supper out of nowhere, just at a time when I need it most (the company, that is, although the food is excellent as well).

There were only a few of us there (as usual), and the subject of winning the lottery somehow came up. One guest hesitated, and when my friend’s wife asked him, “You would want to win the lottery, wouldn’t you?”, his reply was “Not Right Now.”

Silence. “Why not??”

Because I don’t think I’d like the person I’d become if I had that much money right now.

I’ve never forgotten that conversation, and that statement which struck me so deeply, and I wonder where that guy came up with it sometimes when I see him looking back at me from the mirror.


Trading the “News”

I had not intended to take a trade today. As I documented on Friday, had we gotten a close below 144.10 on the SPYders then, and a positive close today, I would have gone long.

However, Friday’s close of 144.71 nullified my setup, so I was back on hold, waiting for another downswing before going long.

Then midday today I checked Yahoo Finance, and they had a glaring headline that said something like “Bulls Retake Wall Street”… and I knew what I had to do: I immediately contacted my broker and bought PUTS.

P.S. I’ve scrolled through their “headlines” tonight, and I can’t find that one now. Wonder where it went…


How Easily We Get Tunnel Vision

Just got home from work (yes, it’s after 9pm), popped over to YouTube to check out Oscar, and noticed this little video in one of the teaser lists. If you have any doubt as to how easily we humans see what we want to see, and only what we want to see, watch this clip, then remember it tomorrow while you’re looking at your charts and wondering how you got caught short when the market was telegraphing long, or vicey-versey:


Futures Video Also Has Great Advice For Stock Traders

As I was doing my run-thru of the RSS feeds and various blogs I follow (yes, I do have my eye on you), I followed a link from Ugly’s del.icio.us list and ended up watching this video from Oscar at futurestraders.com.

After discussing his S&P and Nasdaq futures plan for the next day, Oscar jumps on a soapbox and gives some of the best advice you’ll ever hear. It’s the normal things we know and write about (mind your stops, don’t average down, etc), but his energy is infectious, which drives the points home. He mentions things like:

  • If the S&P runs up to its previous high and rolls over, it’s “gonna go down so big your pants are gonna fall off”
  • “I say we’re going up. If your work says down, and you don’t like what I say, don’t take the trade.”
  • Do your work… do your own homework!
  • Don’t average (down)…
  • Get out when you’re supposed to get out, and immediately. Never ride errors.
  • Never expect the market to get you out of a bad trade. Get yourself out.
  • “I’m a man. When I place my stops and my stops get hit, I get out.”

This is my first encounter with Oscar, but it won’t be my last. I like this guy.

Now to get Ugly to start a futures tutoring service…


Weekend Ramblings: Trading And The Personal Journey

I’ve said before that The Market can be the greatest sensei you’ll meet in your lifetime, if you’re open to learning about yourself. Most of the time, most of us aren’t. We’re too busy trying to force our will onto the Universe, wondering why it doesn’t act the way it should, and resolving therefore that we must “force it harder.”

In a post last year, I suggested that you explore the reasons which underlie your passion for trading… the deep reasons- not just “I want to make money,” but “Why do I want to make money?” and “What situation will that money get me out of?” and, in moments of total personal honesty, “What choices did I make which resulted in my being in this situation which I wish to be out of?”

Continuing that thread of questioning can lead us to some very uncomfortable places, because we often discover that our trading passion is more of a trading desperation, that we are unhappy with our current position and our place, and that we mostly trade from the dream of money that will ostensibly get us out of that place.

This realization is one of the greatest opportunities in life, because if we’re ready to admit it, our current position and place are largely constructed of the consequences of our own earlier decisions, and not of the unfortunate circumstances which we curse as having been thrown upon us randomly by Fate. And it is in realizing that our own decisions are the source of our current situation (consequences) that we begin to gain the power to choose different consequences for our future, rather than continuing to powerlessly live and re-live the same drama, only changing perhaps the actors or settings as we go.

This is not to say that at some earlier point we consciously sabotaged our own future. In fact, we don’t consciously do much at all. Remember driving to work last Monday? Me either. What was for supper that day? Me either. Do you remember what it was about that phone conversation or online forum or Personal Pity Party that was so important it caused you to ignore your kids for hours as they vegged in front of the Boob Tube or text-messaged their thumbs off or chatted with a new stranger on MySpace? Are those the values you would consciously choose for your children, or for yourself?

The Ego: Pay No Attention to the Man Behind the Curtain

The decisions we (routinely, unconsciously) make as adults are controlled for the most part by our Ego, and I hate to use that word because of its negative connotation in current popular culture. The Ego I’m talking about is the core set of complexes and defense mechanisms set up in childhood, in what feels to the child as being necessary to survival, and sometimes actually is. For instance, one of the defense mechanisms my sister and I learned as children was the ability to become invisible, to not call attention to ourselves. It spared us many beatings, though many times we still couldn’t be “invisible” enough. And we didn’t have the option of leaving the situation. We were limited to the choices of 1) Kill What Threatens You or 2) Become Invisible, and Hope It Passes Over. And in the event it didn’t pass over, we learned to automatically switch into the trance of Don’t Show the Pain Or It Gets Worse.

Now, as an adult past the midpoint of my life, my inner, emotional response to any situation which feels the least bit threatening is still the urge to either Attack and Destroy or to Withdraw, with very little space in between. They are both survival mechanisms, and both are severely misplaced when what feels threatening is usually someone else doing or saying something out of their Own Personal Oblivion, with no intention to directly threaten me (and besides, I’m a big ‘ole boy now).

This Ego, which was constructed during childhood in order to protect the child, continues to stand behind the curtain through adulthood, pulling the levers of our decision-making, usually without our knowledge, and with a very unfortunate result: in seeking to protect the child from a threat which doesn’t actually exist, the Ego causes us to re-live the trauma of that child over and over as adults, isolating us and severely limiting the options which should be legitimately open to us. We end up in dead-end jobs, dead-end marriages, abusive relationships, financial chaos and various addictions, seemingly ever abused or neglected by the World the same way we were abused or neglected by our parents. The tragedy is that one can live an entire lifetime without realizing the role we play as adults in calling all of this unto ourselves.

The protective Ego is not bad, is not evil. It is The Guardian taking charge and making the best decisions it can, given the information at hand and considering the fact that it always sees you as being in peril, and that the primary task is one of survival. It’s no wonder, then, that we go through life making what later turn out to be absurd, impulsive and often self-defeating choices… choices which limit our ability to find the happiness we claim to be seeking.

With the benefit of hindsight, we’re able to look back and see many of the poor decisions we’ve made in the past. However, that hindsight never seems powerful enough to change our reaction the next time we face a decision. Hearing ourselves say things akin to “I’ve learned my lesson” or “things are different now” is usually the surest sign that we have not learned anything, as the Ego’s best trick of all is the trick of self-deception.

That last failed trade taught us. That last bad relationship taught us. That last time we fell off the wagon taught us. No they didn’t! It is only in recognizing our pattern of poor choices and delusion, and our powerlessness to consciously make oursleves different, that the opportunity for true change begins. And no one is more proficient at revealing to us our ability to continue making those poor decisions over and over and OVER than our good friends Mr. Dow and Mr. Jones.

The Market: Gentle Guide, Merciless Disciplinarian

Another statement I’ve made in the past is that the market is always there, waiting patiently to reflect our own weaknesses back to us with stark honesty, and often in our own blood. The terrible thing, and the wonderful thing, about the market is that it is completely dispassionate. If you’re impulsive, the market destroys you with your own impulsiveness. If you’re timid, the market continually reflects to you the cost of your hesitance in the form of endless missed opportunities.

How many people got big heads and declared themselves to be Brilliant Investors in the 1990s? In its own way, and in its own time, the market separated the truly brilliant ones (maybe one in a hundred) from all the ones who were simply spectators on a ship being borne by the rising tide of irrational exuberance, and it separated them using their own weaknesses.

How many people lost it all in ‘29 or ‘87 or ‘01 and gave up, retreating into the protection and familiarity of simply sitting in the corner and sniping at “the lucky ones”? How many resolved that what worked before must work again, and they just need to do the same thing, but “do it harder”? How many of them (us) are deluding themselves, and simply repeating previous patterns in more creatively-disguised (from consciousness) ways, and doomed to the same eventual outcome?

What if instead we began to observe our own patterns as the market reflects them back to us, covered in our own sweat and tears? What if we asked, “What is is it about me that allows or causes me to continue to make the same mistakes, even though each time I’m convinced I’ve learned better?”

Precisely because of its objectiveness and dispassion, The Market makes this type of introspection easier than almost any other facet of our lives. The glaring opposite would be the example of interpersonal relationships, where (afterwards) we can always recite what was wrong with “the other” and how it was all their fault. We seem to be able to do this without hearing the echo of our own voice praising them earlier, or defending them to friends who weren’t lost in the fog of romance as we were. We must insist that “they changed”, as otherwise we’d have to consider the possibility that it may say something about us. And after all, we have all those magazines and TV shows and pop songs to reinforce our Ego’s position.

The Market leaves us no one else to blame. Sure, we all complain about the “Big Guys” and the Market Makers skinning us up one side and down the other with their bid/ask manipulations, but we really know where the buck stops. We know its our own poor decision-making and self-discipline that drains our accounts. And with nowhere else to turn, that’s a terrible blow to the Ego, which is to say, a true opportunity for personal growth.

The Market as Guru?

Not really. More like The Market as a very clear mirror. It’s no secret, but so terribly hard to accept, that the Guru who knows us best is on the inside, sometimes locked in a sensory-deprivation chamber “for his own good” by Big Brother Ego.

Perhaps we can venture out a little, take a little power back from that well-intentioned but fatally-flawed Man Behind the Curtain. For me, for example, there lies a great gulf of possibilities between “Attack and Destroy” and “Withdraw” when it comes to unfamiliar, scary or even threatening situations… possibilites of true engagement and interaction which I never knew existed before The Man was suddenly and unceremoniously exposed after my divorce in 2000, and possibilities which have been responsible for much of the (blessed) joy and the (blessed) suffering I’ve experienced since. I stand to gain so much from exploring those possibilities, and the infinite number of others I was unable to see because admitting that I play a role in creating my problems feels like the Reaper is standing at the foot of the bed, and summons my own Guardian to jump in and start making the (flawed) survival-based decisions it always has.

So trade for the action. Trade to get rich. Trade because you’re addicted to adrenaline. Trade because you’re determined to file bankruptcy faster than the other guys. Trade for whatever reason you choose. But if, at some point, you feel the ground move beneath you and hear the sounds of your carefully-built facade beginning to crumble, take the opportunity to look back over your trading journals, your rules, your notes… and see what they really tell you about yourself.

Cheers, and best of luck. I’ll end with a wonderful quote I read just last night:

We see patterns unfold in the course of our lives, patterns which reflect individual history. As long as we remain unconscious of these inner sources, we project them onto the outer world. We may blame our parents, or the game stacked against us. In time, we begin to recognize that the enemy, so to speak, and therefore the deliverer as well, is within. We recognize that the energies we have projected onto the world derive from the inner scenarios, that we are the makers of our world… This means that what is wrong in my life is in me; what is repetitively wounding is in me; what is healing in my life is in me. As obvious as this may sound, in daily life such a recognition is as profound as it is difficult to achieve.

The clues are everywhere. Under our feet. In our relationship patterns. In the perceptions of those who know us best. Everywhere, and we do not see them until we are forced to. Think of Oedipus as the prototype. The omens announced, the prophecies declared, and he walks right into each blind alley. Then, blinded by all he has seen, he is humbled and comes at last to know himself fully. Though in exile and ruin, the gods bless him for this humble homecoming.

The world in which we live is filled with ubiquitous messages. Can we begin to read that world truly? Can we bear the blessing of the gods which comes from being responsible for our lives, the humbling which occurs in our seeing ourselves in the mirror, the liberating insights which bind us to ever deeper acknowledgements of accountability?

John Hollis- “Creating a Life”

 

Are You A Compulsive Trader?

We love trading. We wouldn’t be here otherwise, reading others’ thoughts on it and writing our own. One sometimes overlooked fact is that for some of us or our fellow traders, maybe it’s not just a pastime, and maybe it’s not a passion that they can put down and wait on for 5 years if they aren’t financially prepared to pursue it just yet.

Maybe instead it’s something they can’t resist doing. I think for all of us who are human (and yes, I know some of you guys and gals are pure tradin’ machines!), many of these types of thoughts and feelings appear from time to time, or ride along under the surface chronically during our trading.

This is a great time of year to explore this subject. Trading has all the necessary ingredients to become an addiction, and can sneak up, take over and destroy our lives just as easily as can alcohol or various other substances or habits. The most similar addiction is the addiction to gambling, so I’ve used some gambling references for this post. Let’s get started:

TWENTY QUESTIONS

  • Did you ever lose time from work or school due to trading?

  • Has trading ever made your home life unhappy?

  • Did trading affect your reputation?

  • Have you ever felt remorse after trading?

  • Did you ever trade to get money with which to pay debts or otherwise solve financial difficulties?

  • Did trading cause a decrease in your ambition or efficiency?

  • After losing did you feel you must return as soon as possible and win back your losses?

  • After a win did you have a strong urge to return and win more?

  • Did you often trade until your last dollar was gone?

  • Did you ever borrow to finance your trading?

  • Have you ever sold anything to finance trading?

  • Were you reluctant to use “trading money” for normal expenditures?

  • Did trading make you careless of the welfare of yourself or your family?

  • Did you ever trade longer than you had planned?

  • Have you ever traded to escape worry or trouble?

  • Have you ever committed, or considered committing, an illegal act to finance trading?

  • Did trading cause you to have difficulty in sleeping?

  • Do arguments, disappointments or frustrations create within you an urge to trade?

  • Did you ever have an urge to celebrate any good fortune by trading?

  • Have you ever considered self destruction or suicide as a result of your trading?

Most compulsive traders will answer yes to at least seven of these questions.
(Paraphrased from the Gambler’s Anonymous 20 Questions)

And now, a paraphrase of the Custer Three Phase Model of gambling addiction:

Robert L. Custer, M.D., identified the progression of gambling addiction as including three phases:

  • the winning phase
  • the losing phase
  • and the desperation phase.
  • During the winning phase, traders experience a big win ­ or a series of wins ­ that leaves them with unreasonable optimism that their winning will continue. This leads them to feel great excitement when trading, and they begin increasing the amounts of their bets.

    During the losing phase, the traders often begin bragging about wins they have had, think more about trading and borrow money ­ legally or illegally. They start lying to family and friends and become more irritable, restless and withdrawn. Their home life becomes more unhappy, and they are unable to pay off debts. The traders begin to “chase” their losses, believing they must return as soon as possible to win back their losses.

    During the desperation phase, there is a marked increase in the time spent trading. This is accompanied by remorse, blaming others and alienating family and friends. [The trader] may experience hopelessness, suicidal thoughts and attempts, arrests, divorce, alcohol and/or other drug abuse, or an emotional breakdown.

I doubt there’s anyone for whom some of the above doesn’t hit pretty close to home. If it sounds less like familiar feelings and more like the story of your life, there are many places to begin to explore what’s going on and how to begin the process of change. One online example is Your First Step to Change from the Massachusetts Council on Compulsive Gambling. There are also various 12-step group programs and such, but traders often tend to be somewhat group-averse, so don’t feel like that’s the only source of help.

And of course, there’s always this.

 

Takin’ It All to Vegas

I’ve been a Mayall fan for years, mostly the old 60s stuff and Spinning Coin from the early 90s, but a fan nonetheless.

Yesterday (ironically, during the meltdown), I heard this song from Debbie Davies’ album Key to Love: A Celebration of the Music of John Mayall on the digital blues channel. Debbie wrote this particular song, and I’ve never had something strike me as so funny and eerily appropriate. Tell me you haven’t felt like this sometimes:

I went down to see my stock broker
I said, “Cash me out and gimme the rest”
I took a taxi to the airport
I bought a one-way ticket headed west

Takin’ it all to Vegas
Takin’ it all to Vegas
You know I’m takin’ it all to Vegas
Can’t take Wall Street no more

You know, losin’ so much money made my spirit sink
If I lose in Vegas, ‘least I get a free drink
I’m goin’ to Vegas
Yeah takin’ it all to Vegas
You know I’m takin’ it all to Vegas
Can’t take Wall Street no more

Now the crooked execs got their hand in the till
They say they gonna quit it, but I know they never will
Now a blackjack dealer will never cheat or lie
‘Cause he’s being watched by the eye in the sky

Whoa, Vegas baby
Woo-hoo, I’m goin’ to Vegas
Well I’m takin’ it all to Vegas
I can’t take Wall Street no more

You want to get rich quick, and now I know
Down on Wall Street you can’t even get rich slow!
Goin’ to Vegas
Yeah, yeah, yeah I’m goin’ to Vegas
Well I’m takin’ it all to Vegas
I can’t take Wall Street no more

Debbie Davies, “Takin It All to Vegas”

 

On Tilt

As per the previous post, set up my great 3rd monitor. Got the best night’s sleep in weeks, maybe months. Got up this morning (my day this week off from the ICK! regular job), made coffee, fired up the Command Center, watched the pre-market action.

Then, insidiously and without warning, it happened. Made a trade. Small loss. Routine.

Market reversed… caught it, ha! Made another trade, took extra-large position because I was feeling smug. Market went up, but the stock went tick, tick, tick, down, down, down. Sold half the position at a loss. Back up a little, then down, down, down. Sold the other half.

Went On Tilt for the rest of the day. Click that link and read it. I’ve said professional trading is like professional poker. That link was me today. Fully On Tilt.

Now this evening as I’m mopping the blood up off the floor, I’m humbly going back to What I Know. Run an Advanced Analyzer scan on every stock that finished significantly up or down. Study daily, 30min, 15min, 10min, 5min, 3min, and 1min charts of each of those stocks. Take notes with a pen and paper. See if there’s anything new happening, or if I just wasn’t paying attention to my old notes. Where are they, anyway? Under a pile of bills and other papers on the desk or the bookshelf, somewhere. How long since I’ve actually looked at them? Yeah, I can recite them all, but how long since I actually read them?

I read Trader-X’s post this weekend, and thought, yeah, he’s so right. Well, hell.

Been trading a long time. Been here before. Let’s take a breath and collect our thoughts. Thanksgiving week’s a good time.

I’ve been neglecting the personal site since June. Think I’ll work on it a bit. Owe that to Da Girlz. Hits here will decline. Ad revenue’s bound to fall. ;-)

 
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