Archive for Federal Reserve

Google
 

It’s Official: The World Is Now 100pc Bearish On The Dollar

$100 Oil. $850 Gold. Federal Reserve Easing. China mentions diversifying, loosening the peg, letting the yuan rise. Dollar tied firmly to whipping post:

Euro hitting 1.45 vs. Dollar

Potential Wolfe Wave-type reversal mentioned in previous post has failed spectacularly.

Are we headed for $150 oil, $1200 gold and $2.00/euro? I don’t believe so. Note that a falling dollar would be the market’s natural method of correcting the ills of a massive trade deficit and a spendthrift government. (Here’s where I get to link to my diagram from over a year ago).

I still think the impending debt-deflation from an imploding mortgage market will outstrip the Fed’s ability to inflate us out of this crisis by once again rapidly expanding the money supply.

I would like to point out that, equity-wise, neither a catastrophically falling dollar nor a catastrophically rising dollar is a positive thing. We are on a tightrope here.

Even though I’ve discussed the potential for a falling dollar for years, I currently lean in the direction of a dollar bottom and rise because that’s now the extreme contrarian viewpoint, and I’m, well… me.


Halloween’s Fed Fade Trade Deconstructed

Today, the reaction to the Fed announcement was classic… textbook, even. It’s the spike/ reversal scenario I’ve observed (and occasionally traded) for years, and documented step- by- step in September as referenced in the pre-announcement post earlier today (see “related link” below).

As I said, the reaction isn’t always so perfect. But when it is, it’s simply beautiful.

Here’s the hand-drawn scribble I used last month to explain the trade:

Trading the FOMC Announcement

And now here’s a 3-minute chart of today’s action and The Trade:

10/31/07 Fed Fade Trade on QQQQ

The Big Dummy is onto something, n’est ce pas?

Today, the FFT gave an entry at 54.20 on the Qs, with an initial stop at the bottom of the spike-noodle (that’s my scientific term for it), or 54.04. That’s a total initial risk, or “R” of 16 cents.

Using a simple 2-bar trailing stop, the trade was exited at 54.88, for a gain of 68 cents, or 4.25R in only 36 minutes.

For you home gamers, that means risking $320 on the Qs would have returned $1360 in the same 36 minutes.

As I’ve also said before, this trade works maybe 60 percent of the time. Perhaps 5 or 6 “Fed days” each year. But when it does (like today, and big-time in June), it’s possible to make a serious gain in only a few minutes if traded correctly.

Related link: Profiting from the Fed Announcement: The Fed Fade Trade (15 Sep 07)

As always, cheers and best of luck.


It’s That Time Again!

We’ve got about 25 minutes now…. ready for a potential Fed Fade Trade?


Dollar STRONGER Against the Euro?

Deflation could do it. Although the revision of the numbers from one (August) employment report ruled out any possibility of a recession, much less a deflationary recession, right? Right?

How about debt deflation? It’s coming, only question is whether the Fed has the power to stop it. In some circumstances, they don’t, just as Japan hasn’t for… what, 20 or so years. A deflationary contraction could conceivably outrun the Fed’s inflationary power, if it were severe enough.

Or maybe not. Hell, I grew up hunting rabbits and driving tractors, for Chrissakes. I’m still pissed that Case bought IH.

Here’s the chart:

Euro vs. Dollar - Is the Euro topping?
(click for larger image)

That’s a very Wolfe Wave -looking pattern to me. An ascending wedge for over 18 months, now a spike out of the wedge, a near-term bottom which touched the top trendline, and a retrace.

A break below $1.40/Euro would look like the start of a thrust, no? Could we see the low 1.30s in short order?

Let me put it this way: Think of every single thing you’ve heard or read about the dollar, gold, oil, etc recently. What percentage of people and articles are forecasting

  • A stronger dollar?

  • Falling gold prices?

  • Falling oil prices?

  • Falling stock prices?

Ten percent? Five percent? One percent? How many guests on CNBC are saying, “Oh yeah, Maria, $60 oil and $500 gold on the horizon”? Limit as x goes to zero?

Now, with virtually everyone on earth on the same side of the boat, what does your trading experience tell you would bring Mr. Market the greatest gleeful pleasure, evil sadist that he is?

Think about it.


Christmas Shopping Without Debt Enslavement: The New Layaway

I’m going to spend a minute or three on my soapbox (I’m writing this on a Saturday morning after three cups of coffee on an empty stomach, and the kids are still asleep… you know I’ve gotta ramble), then describe a method which, if you’re up to it, can help you to take on little or no debt this Christmas season, yet still buy gifts for the people you love. My personal version of layaway, if you will.

What Happened to Layaway?

It’s been almost a year since Big Daddy Wal-Mart finally gave in and killed its layaway program. It was a necessary business move, as the traditional purpose of layaway- to allow folks to spread the pinch of buying expensive items or multiple gifts over a period of months- has vanished into the smoky abyss of personal debt, or to use the word we’ve all bought into due to its more huggable connotation, credit.

That abyss has opened up for the same reason that our economy has “grown” so extraordinarily since World War II, and that is that someone, somewhere has gradually convinced us all that it’s perfectly fine for individuals and governments alike to spend money they don’t have. Illegitimate Spawn of The New Deal, perhaps.

In addition, our enslavement to personal debt has evolved hand- in- hand with our inability to handle the concept of delayed gratification, a concept which was a part of life for our parents, but which our children can’t even comprehend (hang on, Dad, I’ve gotta switch lines on my cell phone and pause the iPod for a moment so I can take this other call). It’s an important concept which Scott Peck wrote very lucidly about in The Road Less Traveled, and if you’re into that stage of your personal journey, it’s a book I’d highly recommend.

Debt Is Bad, but “Credit” Is Good? Propaganda 101

Did you notice that happening? Me either. The specter of personal debt, which to our grandparents was anathema (especially after the Great Depression), to us is not only acceptable, it’s desirable. Heck, not that long ago there were still debtor’s prisons! How did we get from there to here?

As with all so-called “progressive” societal change, it took place over a number of decades and started with a brilliant manipulation of the language. George Orwell wasn’t right just in a symbolic sense; in many ways he was describing exactly what goes on every day.

We think in language. Much eastern philosophy is based on the forgotten fact that we are capable of so much thought beyond concepts which language can describe, but that’s another subject.

By manipulating the words we use (and think), we can be made to unconsciously take on a particular attitude or position about a subject, favorable or unfavorable, without even realizing it. We think it’s our personal opinion, when in fact it’s an opinion that has been given to us.

This is what used to be called propaganda, but in the greatest self-makeover in history it is now known by its more favorable moniker, marketing. Get people to think and speak in your terms, and they unknowingly adopt your opinions as their own. For instance, anything that ends in “-phobic” automatically connotes “bad,” or at least unreasonable, and the use of that suffix is very effective at changing people’s attitudes simply by getting them to use (and think in) those terms.

Imagine if we spent the next three decades universally referring to people who don’t eat meat as carniphobic instead of the we’re- so- enlightened- don’t- you- want- to- join term vegetarian. Geez, who on earth would want to be a carniphobe? And so the graduating class of 2045 would be 99.9% meat-eaters. (By the way, I just came up with this example off the top of my head, but Beef Association, take note and feel free to send me a check).

Are You Ready To Stop Your Addiction to Deficit Spending?

It takes years to break the habit. To get into a position to even have that option, frankly. But those years are well-spent, and once you’ve broken the bonds of enslavement to the consequences of your past impulses, you become much stronger in deciding whether to act on (or more importantly, to not act on) new impulses.

In fact, you finally learn the true feeling of “I want it, but can I afford to pay for it in present dollars (cash), and do I really want it that badly?” And that power is awesome.

To use the propagan…, er, marketing technique I described earlier, learn to think of yourself and others like you, who have reclaimed their financial power, not as “Debtophobic” or “Creditophobic” (which of course would be unreasonable, un-American even). Instead learn to think of yourself as a freedom-o-phile. Someone help me here, there’s got to be a catchier word. But you get the point. It’s a positive thing.

Refusing to add debt for Christmas is just one step, but it’s a very significant one. And you can still buy nice gifts without taking on debt, by paying for those gifts over time, in advance, just like layaway.

Here’s how:

Wal-Mart Reloadable Shopping or Gift Card

Next time you’re going through the checkout at your major retailer of choice, buy one of these reloadable gift cards. Start out with 20 or 25 dollars. Then, each time you pass through the checkout line in the future, get out that card and have them add five or 10 dollars to it. That’s often less than the sales tax on your other purchases, and you’ll barely notice it. (And you are paying for these purchases, not charging them, right?).

If you start this scheme in the summer, or even at the end of September (!), by the time those big Christmas sales hit, you’ll be able to knock out gifts for the majority of people on your list, all prepaid and at sale prices, no less. No interest, no buyer’s remorse. You’ll be purchasing with full-powered current dollars, not future dollars which have been depreciated by a print-happy Federal Reserve and by the interest due The Master (aka the banking system).

Keep the card, and start the five dollar gig in January next time. Get cards from two or three major retailers. By the time the next Christmas rolls around, you can give more nice gifts to more people than you ever imagined (you don’t have to cut so many off the list due to lack of funds, you can do it just because you don’t like ‘em!), and guess what… you can get to a point where you even have money left over!

It’s very liberating. The politicians don’t want you to do it. The retailers don’t want you to do it. The Federal Reserve doesn’t want you to do it. And the banks sure as hell don’t want you to do it.

Think about it- are those the people you want to please? Be a true anarchist. Pay your debts. Take personal responsibility. Take your power back, and just watch ‘em all squirm!


Jon Stewart and Alan Greenspan: Best Interview Ever

Alan Greenspan made an appearance on The Daily Show to plug his new book, but instead of the shallow, softball exchange he may have been expecting, Jon Stewart knocked him back on his heels with one of the most insightful interviews I’ve ever heard.

They covered the myth of the Free Market, the Gold Standard, the Fed’s role in controlling the quantity of fiat money, inflation, irrational exuberance… all in the span of about 5 minutes and all in a comedic context.

The coup de gras is when Greenspan admits that even with all the complex mathematical models, neither he nor anyone else is any better at forecasting now than they were 50 years ago!

Pure Brilliance. This interview should be mandatory viewing for any student of FOMC operations and monetary history, and I think libertarians and many Ron Paul supporters will particularly enjoy it.

You can (and should) view the entire video at the Comedy Central Daily Show website. Here’s a sample of some of the exchanges:


Stewart: (after Greenspan’s explanation that the market moves on expectations of the Fed move, not the fundamentals of it) So the Fed, or whoever’s leading it, if they wanted to could in fact “goof” on all of us…
Greenspan: (smiles) You wouldn’t want to.

Stewart: When you say “Open Market,” I always wonder… Why do we have a Fed? Wouldn’t the market take care of interest rates and all that? Why do we have someone adjusting rates if we are a free market society?
Greenspan: We didn’t need a central bank when we were on the Gold Standard…[Conspiracy theorists note- the Fed was created 20 years BEFORE we decoupled from the Gold Std -Ed.] …people would buy and sell gold and the markets would do what the Fed does now… but by the 1930s most everybody in the world decided that the Gold Standard was strangling the economy and universally the Gold Standard was abandoned…
…you need somebody out there or some mechanism to determine how much money is out there because the amount of money in an economy relates to the amount of inflation…
Stewart: So we’re not a free market then- there is an invisible, there is a “benevolent” hand that touches us…
Greenspan: Absolutely, you are quite correct. To the extent that there is a central bank governing the amount of money in the system, that is not a Free Market, and most people call it regulation [this statement should forever be enshrined as a quote- Ed].

Stewart: When you lower interest rates, it drives money to stocks and lowers the return people get on savings.
Greenspan: Yes, indeed.
Stewart: So they’ve made a choice - “We would like to favor those who invest in the stock market and not those who [save]”…
Greenspan:That’s the way it comes out, but that’s not the way we think about it.
Stewart: Explain that to me. It seems to me that we favor investment, but we don’t favor work. The vast majority of people work, they pay payroll taxes, and they use banks. And then there’s this whole other world of hedge funds and short betting… y’know, it seems like craps. And they keep saying, “No no no, don’t worry about it, it’s Free Market, that’s why we live in much bigger houses.” But it really is, it’s the Fed, or some other thing, no?
Greenspan: I think you’d better re-read my book. [trying to work the plug into the surprising line of questioning- Ed.]
Stewart: Am I wrong that we penalize work by not making the choice to…
Greenspan: No, what a sound money system does is to stabilize the elements in it and reduce the uncertainty that people confront, and when people confront uncertainty they withdraw and it reduces economic activity…

Stewart: So it’s all about perception then. It’s about making people believe the system is sound. If the stock market is high, people feel confident in spending, and if it lowers, they feel less confident?
Greenspan: Well…uh…I think you have to realize, there are certain aspects of human nature, which move exactly the way you defined it. The problem is, periodically we all go a little bit euphoric until we are assuming with confidence that everything is terrific, there will be no problems, nothing will ever happen, and then it dawns on us- NO!
Stewart: And then it goes the other way.
Greenspan: Exactly.
Stewart: Huge Fear.

Greenspan: I was telling my colleagues the other day… I’d been dealing with these big mathematical models for forecasting the economy, and I’m looking at what’s going on the last few weeks and I say, “Y’know, if I could figure out a way to determine whether or not people are more fearful, or changing to euphoric… I don’t need any of this other stuff. I could forecast the economy better than any way I know. The trouble is, we can’t figure that out. I’ve been in the forecasting business for 50 years, and I’m no better than I ever was, and nobody else is either.”
Stewart: (Leans back in chair)…You just bummed the sh*t outta me!


 

Profiting from the Fed Announcement: The Fed Fade Trade

With experience, skill and a bit of luck, it’s often possible to make a quick, profitable trade in the minutes after an FOMC announcement by “fading” the first reaction spike.

The Fed announces its Target Funds Rate decision at 2:15 EST on the last day of the meeting, normally a Tuesday for one-day meetings and Wednesday for two-day meetings. Immediately after the announcement, the market typically goes into wild oscillations, the amplitude of which depends on recent volatility, whether the announcement is a “surprise” compared to expectations, and most of all, how many people are watching and waiting to jump in.

Caution #1: This trade is not for the inexperienced, the undisciplined or the faint of heart. I’d only recommend it to experienced traders who have the self-control to take a small loss instantly, not giving in to “hope” for even 5 seconds if the trade goes against you, because if this trade goes against you, you may be on the wrong side of the Big Swing, and holding on can do massive damage in a matter of minutes. It’s best to watch a few Fed announcement days and paper-trade for practice first, noting the (many) ways in which you can get caught pointing in the wrong direction.

Caution #2: This pattern works out about 60+% of the time, in my experience. I consider those great odds since the anticipated gain is multiples of the maximum loss (initial stop!). However, the times it doesn’t work, if you drop your plan and start trying to “second-guess” entry points, you’re just trading on emotion, and you WILL lose money. If the trade sets up, I take it. Otherwise, I do not trade Fed days except occasionally right at the close.

The Setup: Wait for the First Swing to Falter

(Note- there’s an example chart at the bottom of this post)

The “fade trade” takes advantage of the fact that individuals often react to the first movement after the news, afraid of being left out of a big run. The “smart” money usually lets this swing go for a few minutes (typically until about 2:20 or 2:25), then takes it violently in the other direction, often doubling or tripling the range of the first swing.

The Trade: Spike, Doodle, Reverse!

Here’s how I enter the Fed Fade Trade:

  • I ignore the market altogether until at least 2:10 EST. Sometimes I don’t even look until around 2:19 to 2:20, so that I don’t get caught up in the excitement when the announcement hits.

  • A short time-frame chart is required to see the swings clearly. My personal preference is 3-minute bars. 5-minute bars work pretty well, too. 1-minute bars usually cause me to enter or exit too soon.

  • Important! I let the post-2:15 swing go whichever direction it likes, however far it likes. It may spike up on “bad” news or down on “good” news. I do not try to predict the direction by the news.

  • At about 2:20, I start watching for one or two narrow-range sideways bars near the extreme of the spike. These bars often appear between 2:19 and 2:29.

  • Once a narrow bar has formed, I take the break of its range in the opposite direction of the spike as an entry signal, with the extreme of the spike as a hard stop. No exceptions, no wait- and- see, no hoping.

    For example, if we get a downward spike from 2:15 to 2:20, then a sideways “noodle,” I’ll get long (opposite the spike) on the break of the “noodle” bar’s top, with a stop at the spike’s low.

  • At this point, if the price reverses back through the extreme of the spike and hits the initial stop (and this can be 10 seconds after the trade is placed), the trade is exited, no ifs, ands or buts.

The Exit

Ok, so what if I catch the falling knife and find myself up “6R” in 14 minutes? This is where stop-management strategies come in, and I’d recommend a very aggressive trailing stop. This is a quick trade, the trend is NOT your friend; spank it and get out.

I watch for reversals particularly at 1) the level where the first spike started at 2:15 EST and 2) when the current thrust has reached 2x the range of the first spike. If we make it through those, I’ll trail the stop up using Fibonacci levels or my variation on the PSAR. If the spike I’m riding is simply HUGE and I’m up “8-10R” or more (happens only once every few years), I’ll jump out at the first sign of any reversal, whether I’ve caught the extreme or not.

What It Looks Like: A Long FFT Off A 2:15 Down Spike

I’ve watched this phenomenon for many years, and traded it quite a few times. I have not captured intraday charts on Fed days, however, so here is a hand-drawn example for your viewing pleasure:

Trading the FOMC Announcement

The Fed meeting coming up this Tuesday should be a doosey. We may see some extreme post-announcement action. Should be fun.

Let me know what you think- comments always welcomed.


Surprise Funds Rate Cut By Fed Imminent?

Heads-up to a developing situation:

Credit is crunching again, and banks are having liquidity problems- the Fed did $31.25 billion in Repurchase Agreements today. That sounded like a lot, so I went to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York website and copied the daily figures into Excel from August 1 thru today. Here’s what a quick chart of those figures shows:

Repurchase Agreements

Clearly something is up. Another point of interest- of the $31 billion in repos today, the Fed accepted $4.1 billion in the infamous mortgage-backed securities. Contrast that to August 10th, when they accepted that moldy paper for all $38 billion worth of repos.

So, the banks are in a temporary liquidity crisis, but it’s not because the MBS market is locked up and no one will buy the moldy paper. That doesn’t sound good…

Now for the next bit of chartage. The market is suddenly expecting a large amount of permanent money to be added to the system. This is reflected in the spike in the price of gold and the drop of the dollar against the euro. Here’s gold:

Spike in Gold Price

Credit Crisis anew. Permanent money. Sounds like only one answer to me: a cut in the Funds Rate. I had already publicly said that I felt the Fed would try to wait until the 9/18 meeting to cut, so as not to spook anyone. Today’s data leads me to believe they may not be able to wait that long.

Cheers.


« Previous entries