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How to Spot the Recession Before They Do

If deflation caused by the credit market collapse overtakes the easing Fed and the falling dollar (leading us into a painful recession), we’ll hear about it from CNBC and FoxNews about nine months too late. Is there any way for the astute individual (who knows what shows up in the “news” is always past-tense) to spot the breakdown as it’s happening?

There is- watch the commodities, they react first.

Gold and Oil

Keep an eye on the charts of Oil and Gold for a top, see the dollar find a bottom against… everything, and when you’re comfortable we’ve rolled over into the spiral, plan your trades accordingly. What worked brilliantly the last year or so may suddenly stop working, and you’ll find your trades hitting stops instead of profit targets.

That will mean it’s time to get out the old playbook and mix things up, because we’ll be on the field with an entirely different opponent.

Related Links


It’s Official: The World Is Now 100pc Bearish On The Dollar

$100 Oil. $850 Gold. Federal Reserve Easing. China mentions diversifying, loosening the peg, letting the yuan rise. Dollar tied firmly to whipping post:

Euro hitting 1.45 vs. Dollar

Potential Wolfe Wave-type reversal mentioned in previous post has failed spectacularly.

Are we headed for $150 oil, $1200 gold and $2.00/euro? I don’t believe so. Note that a falling dollar would be the market’s natural method of correcting the ills of a massive trade deficit and a spendthrift government. (Here’s where I get to link to my diagram from over a year ago).

I still think the impending debt-deflation from an imploding mortgage market will outstrip the Fed’s ability to inflate us out of this crisis by once again rapidly expanding the money supply.

I would like to point out that, equity-wise, neither a catastrophically falling dollar nor a catastrophically rising dollar is a positive thing. We are on a tightrope here.

Even though I’ve discussed the potential for a falling dollar for years, I currently lean in the direction of a dollar bottom and rise because that’s now the extreme contrarian viewpoint, and I’m, well… me.


Dollar STRONGER Against the Euro?

Deflation could do it. Although the revision of the numbers from one (August) employment report ruled out any possibility of a recession, much less a deflationary recession, right? Right?

How about debt deflation? It’s coming, only question is whether the Fed has the power to stop it. In some circumstances, they don’t, just as Japan hasn’t for… what, 20 or so years. A deflationary contraction could conceivably outrun the Fed’s inflationary power, if it were severe enough.

Or maybe not. Hell, I grew up hunting rabbits and driving tractors, for Chrissakes. I’m still pissed that Case bought IH.

Here’s the chart:

Euro vs. Dollar - Is the Euro topping?
(click for larger image)

That’s a very Wolfe Wave -looking pattern to me. An ascending wedge for over 18 months, now a spike out of the wedge, a near-term bottom which touched the top trendline, and a retrace.

A break below $1.40/Euro would look like the start of a thrust, no? Could we see the low 1.30s in short order?

Let me put it this way: Think of every single thing you’ve heard or read about the dollar, gold, oil, etc recently. What percentage of people and articles are forecasting

  • A stronger dollar?

  • Falling gold prices?

  • Falling oil prices?

  • Falling stock prices?

Ten percent? Five percent? One percent? How many guests on CNBC are saying, “Oh yeah, Maria, $60 oil and $500 gold on the horizon”? Limit as x goes to zero?

Now, with virtually everyone on earth on the same side of the boat, what does your trading experience tell you would bring Mr. Market the greatest gleeful pleasure, evil sadist that he is?

Think about it.


Christmas Shopping Without Debt Enslavement: The New Layaway

I’m going to spend a minute or three on my soapbox (I’m writing this on a Saturday morning after three cups of coffee on an empty stomach, and the kids are still asleep… you know I’ve gotta ramble), then describe a method which, if you’re up to it, can help you to take on little or no debt this Christmas season, yet still buy gifts for the people you love. My personal version of layaway, if you will.

What Happened to Layaway?

It’s been almost a year since Big Daddy Wal-Mart finally gave in and killed its layaway program. It was a necessary business move, as the traditional purpose of layaway- to allow folks to spread the pinch of buying expensive items or multiple gifts over a period of months- has vanished into the smoky abyss of personal debt, or to use the word we’ve all bought into due to its more huggable connotation, credit.

That abyss has opened up for the same reason that our economy has “grown” so extraordinarily since World War II, and that is that someone, somewhere has gradually convinced us all that it’s perfectly fine for individuals and governments alike to spend money they don’t have. Illegitimate Spawn of The New Deal, perhaps.

In addition, our enslavement to personal debt has evolved hand- in- hand with our inability to handle the concept of delayed gratification, a concept which was a part of life for our parents, but which our children can’t even comprehend (hang on, Dad, I’ve gotta switch lines on my cell phone and pause the iPod for a moment so I can take this other call). It’s an important concept which Scott Peck wrote very lucidly about in The Road Less Traveled, and if you’re into that stage of your personal journey, it’s a book I’d highly recommend.

Debt Is Bad, but “Credit” Is Good? Propaganda 101

Did you notice that happening? Me either. The specter of personal debt, which to our grandparents was anathema (especially after the Great Depression), to us is not only acceptable, it’s desirable. Heck, not that long ago there were still debtor’s prisons! How did we get from there to here?

As with all so-called “progressive” societal change, it took place over a number of decades and started with a brilliant manipulation of the language. George Orwell wasn’t right just in a symbolic sense; in many ways he was describing exactly what goes on every day.

We think in language. Much eastern philosophy is based on the forgotten fact that we are capable of so much thought beyond concepts which language can describe, but that’s another subject.

By manipulating the words we use (and think), we can be made to unconsciously take on a particular attitude or position about a subject, favorable or unfavorable, without even realizing it. We think it’s our personal opinion, when in fact it’s an opinion that has been given to us.

This is what used to be called propaganda, but in the greatest self-makeover in history it is now known by its more favorable moniker, marketing. Get people to think and speak in your terms, and they unknowingly adopt your opinions as their own. For instance, anything that ends in “-phobic” automatically connotes “bad,” or at least unreasonable, and the use of that suffix is very effective at changing people’s attitudes simply by getting them to use (and think in) those terms.

Imagine if we spent the next three decades universally referring to people who don’t eat meat as carniphobic instead of the we’re- so- enlightened- don’t- you- want- to- join term vegetarian. Geez, who on earth would want to be a carniphobe? And so the graduating class of 2045 would be 99.9% meat-eaters. (By the way, I just came up with this example off the top of my head, but Beef Association, take note and feel free to send me a check).

Are You Ready To Stop Your Addiction to Deficit Spending?

It takes years to break the habit. To get into a position to even have that option, frankly. But those years are well-spent, and once you’ve broken the bonds of enslavement to the consequences of your past impulses, you become much stronger in deciding whether to act on (or more importantly, to not act on) new impulses.

In fact, you finally learn the true feeling of “I want it, but can I afford to pay for it in present dollars (cash), and do I really want it that badly?” And that power is awesome.

To use the propagan…, er, marketing technique I described earlier, learn to think of yourself and others like you, who have reclaimed their financial power, not as “Debtophobic” or “Creditophobic” (which of course would be unreasonable, un-American even). Instead learn to think of yourself as a freedom-o-phile. Someone help me here, there’s got to be a catchier word. But you get the point. It’s a positive thing.

Refusing to add debt for Christmas is just one step, but it’s a very significant one. And you can still buy nice gifts without taking on debt, by paying for those gifts over time, in advance, just like layaway.

Here’s how:

Wal-Mart Reloadable Shopping or Gift Card

Next time you’re going through the checkout at your major retailer of choice, buy one of these reloadable gift cards. Start out with 20 or 25 dollars. Then, each time you pass through the checkout line in the future, get out that card and have them add five or 10 dollars to it. That’s often less than the sales tax on your other purchases, and you’ll barely notice it. (And you are paying for these purchases, not charging them, right?).

If you start this scheme in the summer, or even at the end of September (!), by the time those big Christmas sales hit, you’ll be able to knock out gifts for the majority of people on your list, all prepaid and at sale prices, no less. No interest, no buyer’s remorse. You’ll be purchasing with full-powered current dollars, not future dollars which have been depreciated by a print-happy Federal Reserve and by the interest due The Master (aka the banking system).

Keep the card, and start the five dollar gig in January next time. Get cards from two or three major retailers. By the time the next Christmas rolls around, you can give more nice gifts to more people than you ever imagined (you don’t have to cut so many off the list due to lack of funds, you can do it just because you don’t like ‘em!), and guess what… you can get to a point where you even have money left over!

It’s very liberating. The politicians don’t want you to do it. The retailers don’t want you to do it. The Federal Reserve doesn’t want you to do it. And the banks sure as hell don’t want you to do it.

Think about it- are those the people you want to please? Be a true anarchist. Pay your debts. Take personal responsibility. Take your power back, and just watch ‘em all squirm!


Jon Stewart and Alan Greenspan: Best Interview Ever

Alan Greenspan made an appearance on The Daily Show to plug his new book, but instead of the shallow, softball exchange he may have been expecting, Jon Stewart knocked him back on his heels with one of the most insightful interviews I’ve ever heard.

They covered the myth of the Free Market, the Gold Standard, the Fed’s role in controlling the quantity of fiat money, inflation, irrational exuberance… all in the span of about 5 minutes and all in a comedic context.

The coup de gras is when Greenspan admits that even with all the complex mathematical models, neither he nor anyone else is any better at forecasting now than they were 50 years ago!

Pure Brilliance. This interview should be mandatory viewing for any student of FOMC operations and monetary history, and I think libertarians and many Ron Paul supporters will particularly enjoy it.

You can (and should) view the entire video at the Comedy Central Daily Show website. Here’s a sample of some of the exchanges:


Stewart: (after Greenspan’s explanation that the market moves on expectations of the Fed move, not the fundamentals of it) So the Fed, or whoever’s leading it, if they wanted to could in fact “goof” on all of us…
Greenspan: (smiles) You wouldn’t want to.

Stewart: When you say “Open Market,” I always wonder… Why do we have a Fed? Wouldn’t the market take care of interest rates and all that? Why do we have someone adjusting rates if we are a free market society?
Greenspan: We didn’t need a central bank when we were on the Gold Standard…[Conspiracy theorists note- the Fed was created 20 years BEFORE we decoupled from the Gold Std -Ed.] …people would buy and sell gold and the markets would do what the Fed does now… but by the 1930s most everybody in the world decided that the Gold Standard was strangling the economy and universally the Gold Standard was abandoned…
…you need somebody out there or some mechanism to determine how much money is out there because the amount of money in an economy relates to the amount of inflation…
Stewart: So we’re not a free market then- there is an invisible, there is a “benevolent” hand that touches us…
Greenspan: Absolutely, you are quite correct. To the extent that there is a central bank governing the amount of money in the system, that is not a Free Market, and most people call it regulation [this statement should forever be enshrined as a quote- Ed].

Stewart: When you lower interest rates, it drives money to stocks and lowers the return people get on savings.
Greenspan: Yes, indeed.
Stewart: So they’ve made a choice - “We would like to favor those who invest in the stock market and not those who [save]”…
Greenspan:That’s the way it comes out, but that’s not the way we think about it.
Stewart: Explain that to me. It seems to me that we favor investment, but we don’t favor work. The vast majority of people work, they pay payroll taxes, and they use banks. And then there’s this whole other world of hedge funds and short betting… y’know, it seems like craps. And they keep saying, “No no no, don’t worry about it, it’s Free Market, that’s why we live in much bigger houses.” But it really is, it’s the Fed, or some other thing, no?
Greenspan: I think you’d better re-read my book. [trying to work the plug into the surprising line of questioning- Ed.]
Stewart: Am I wrong that we penalize work by not making the choice to…
Greenspan: No, what a sound money system does is to stabilize the elements in it and reduce the uncertainty that people confront, and when people confront uncertainty they withdraw and it reduces economic activity…

Stewart: So it’s all about perception then. It’s about making people believe the system is sound. If the stock market is high, people feel confident in spending, and if it lowers, they feel less confident?
Greenspan: Well…uh…I think you have to realize, there are certain aspects of human nature, which move exactly the way you defined it. The problem is, periodically we all go a little bit euphoric until we are assuming with confidence that everything is terrific, there will be no problems, nothing will ever happen, and then it dawns on us- NO!
Stewart: And then it goes the other way.
Greenspan: Exactly.
Stewart: Huge Fear.

Greenspan: I was telling my colleagues the other day… I’d been dealing with these big mathematical models for forecasting the economy, and I’m looking at what’s going on the last few weeks and I say, “Y’know, if I could figure out a way to determine whether or not people are more fearful, or changing to euphoric… I don’t need any of this other stuff. I could forecast the economy better than any way I know. The trouble is, we can’t figure that out. I’ve been in the forecasting business for 50 years, and I’m no better than I ever was, and nobody else is either.”
Stewart: (Leans back in chair)…You just bummed the sh*t outta me!


 

Surprise Funds Rate Cut By Fed Imminent?

Heads-up to a developing situation:

Credit is crunching again, and banks are having liquidity problems- the Fed did $31.25 billion in Repurchase Agreements today. That sounded like a lot, so I went to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York website and copied the daily figures into Excel from August 1 thru today. Here’s what a quick chart of those figures shows:

Repurchase Agreements

Clearly something is up. Another point of interest- of the $31 billion in repos today, the Fed accepted $4.1 billion in the infamous mortgage-backed securities. Contrast that to August 10th, when they accepted that moldy paper for all $38 billion worth of repos.

So, the banks are in a temporary liquidity crisis, but it’s not because the MBS market is locked up and no one will buy the moldy paper. That doesn’t sound good…

Now for the next bit of chartage. The market is suddenly expecting a large amount of permanent money to be added to the system. This is reflected in the spike in the price of gold and the drop of the dollar against the euro. Here’s gold:

Spike in Gold Price

Credit Crisis anew. Permanent money. Sounds like only one answer to me: a cut in the Funds Rate. I had already publicly said that I felt the Fed would try to wait until the 9/18 meeting to cut, so as not to spook anyone. Today’s data leads me to believe they may not be able to wait that long.

Cheers.


Overnight Repos: The Fed As Pawn Broker

One of the best segments Larry Kudlow has ever had was Friday afternoon, discussing the recent Fed Actions. They say it goes into “pay to watch” status at some point, but for now, you can still watch it here.

I’m big on analogies. Whether explaining things to my daughters or just trying to sort them out in my own feeble attic, drawing an analogy always seems to help. And among a lot of other good information, the Kudlow piece contained an analogy by one of the guests that was just perfect: He mentioned that Repos (overnight, or, in this case, 3-day) are basically like the Fed acting as a pawn broker for the banks. And I thought… exactly!

Bubba Has A Liquidity Crisis

When one of my redneck buddies blows too much of his pay on beer and fried chicken, he sometimes runs a little short on cash for the routine stuff. You know, like rent and electricity. So he takes an asset, say the wife’s wedding ring, down to the pawn shop on Texas street, and the guy behind the counter gives him a few hundred bucks.

Bubba’s a good guy at heart, so he uses that cash to pay the rent or buy the groceries. Then when he gets his paycheck on Friday, he heads back down to the pawn shop and pays the broker the cash back, plus a little interest, of course, and brings honey’s ring back home. All is well, at least for the moment.

Banks Are Bubbas Too

What has been happening the last few weeks is that banks (redneck beer-bellies that they are) have been having trouble meeting their own financial obligations because no one wanted to pay the asking price on some assets they were trying to sell. What assets? Subprime mortgage paper- the notes that amount to I.O.U.’s from millions of our irresponsible neighbors who got into houses they couldn’t afford.

Well, if the Fed just stood by and let the banks look at their creditors (ironically enough, often that’s each other) with a big blank stare and a hangover, things would get really ugly really fast. Banks would begin to default on their obligations and the domino effect would crash the entire economy, possibly in a matter of days.

So, Uncle Ben Bernanke straightens his “Cat Diesel Power” cap, spits some Skoal juice into his ever-present styrofoam cup, and steps up to the pawnshop counter to save the day.

So far, what we’ve described is your normal, everyday overnight repo operation. “Repo” is the nickname for Repurchase Agreements, which simply means the Fed maintains liquidity by loaning the banks cash with some asset as collateral, and the banks then repurchase those assets in the designated time (hence the name- overnight repo, 3-day repo, 14-day repo, etc). This is how Repos differ from other Open Market Operations where the Fed purchases treasuries to permanently add cash to the system… repos add cash temporarily, then take it back, just “keeping the wheels greased,” so to speak, no net long-term change in the overall money supply.

Sounds familiar, no? That’s exactly what the pawn broker does for Bubba. He enters into a repurchase agreement with him for the wife’s ring.

Good Money for Questionable Collateral

But here’s the crucial difference with the Fed’s recent actions: they have agreed to take the unwanted subprime paper as collateral on the repo loans. Typically they would be getting Treasury notes as collateral. Imagine the pawn broker giving Bubba the cash loan and taking as collateral Bubba’s used wristwatch, which was valuable once upon a time, but no one wants it now because Bubba’s been wearing it while he replaced timing chains and camshafts, and it’s all banged up.

The pawn broker would have to be pretty worried about Bubba’s financial state to take a risk like that, wouldn’t he?

The Federal Reserve is providing tens of billions of dollars in liquidity to keep the banking system functioning, and is accepting moldy subprime paper (aka Mortgage Backed Securities) as collateral without significantly discounting those securities (it wouldn’t be as big a deal if the Fed were loaning, say, 40 cents on the dollar for the value of these notes).

That tells you how worried Uncle Ben is about the banks and their liquidity problem. And that’s the real news.


They Can Utterly Destroy Our Economy At Any Moment If They Feel Like It

Told ya so, told ya so, and told ya so. This just sent to me by a friend (thanks Ric) a few minutes ago:

China Threatens Nuclear Option of Dollar Sales

This is a subject I’ve ranted about endlessly for over two years now, and it is the largest threat to our entire economic and political system since the Civil War.

But, hey, look how cheap that stuff is at Wal-Mart. And the talking heads on TV explain to us virtually every day how great it is that China has kept its currency artificially low for so many years, how that’s not contradictory to their “free-market” stance, and how it’s OK that they’ve built up over thirteen hundred BILLION dollars’ worth of our treasury notes. Really. Trust them. They’re experts.

A recent related post: (3 July 2007) Don’t Forget the Dollar and China’s US Treasury Reserves


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