I would not have chosen that new low as a stop. With swing trades like this one, my stops are often looser, leaving more room for waffling before a run. Some intensive backtesting showed me that, by sitting out the vacillations, I’d take some losses, but would make significantly more money in the long run. These things seem to have a habit of giving a signal, then wandering around a bit.

I’ve written about OGRes (Opening Gap Reversals) quite a few times, and in my experience they’re one of the strongest signals out there. You see from the post after this one that I would have graded an OGRe after that run an “A+” long entry- I actually double my position size on the rare occasion when we get an OGRe at the bottom or top of a run, if I’m fortunate enough to catch it.

Had I been off work today, I would have exited my position on this morning’s reversal between 10:00 and 10:30 EST, at around 144.00-144.40, and would be sniffing a re-entry now.

An aggressive re-entry would have been on the close today (I show a couple of weaker “buy” signals below 141), a better one, in my opinion, would be to wait for a break back above 141.50. (Levels from the current RSI system).

However, as I said, I did not get the chance to exit. Therefore I’ll be watching the original “danger zone” below 140 tomorrow and the intraday action. I will very likely either 1) exit entirely and wait for a re-entry or 2) double my position if the action is positive (i.e. maybe a good spooky gap down and OGRe in the other direction).

If we don’t dive down there at all, I’ll just sit tight.