Followup on Google
Just a few days ago, I had discussed GOOG as a pullback play, when its chart looked like this:
Well, it did indeed break upward nicely from there, and now the chart looks like this:
A great little $20-plus move since the post, and about $15 above the trigger point of $530. I don’t have a rule in place for selling at a particular extension level on GOOG (”DSM I” only applies to the SPYders), so I’d fall back on the tried and true, and pull a Landry right here, which is to say, sell half the position and move my stop to breakeven. Barring a big overnight gap, that gives us a guaranteed profit of over 1R (our initial risk) on half the position, and leaves the other half in place with a stop at breakeven… in other words, a FREE RIDE. Sweet.
DSM I Targets for 7/6/07
The indecisive action and slightly lower finished changed the RSI(4) projections, and the targets are now as follows:
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Position: Long from 149.70 (this is still trade #2 since inception- the longer holding periods are good on commissions, hard on the nerves)
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Target: Exit at 153.35
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Stop: 149.60
Note that the stop has trailed up to the point where this is essentially a free position. That’s great, but we’re sooo close, and I’m really hoping to tag that target price first.
Bonds Did Bounce
In my most recent currency rant, I noted that the 10-year bond yield had pulled back to 5.0% and looked as if it may resume its climb. Looks like it did, with a bullet. Yields closed today at the very top of their range, at 5.14%. The dollar strengthened, but only very slightly. It should pick up some steam here, unless the Chinese or Japanese are intervening in the market. As I’ve discussed before, if they are, we’ll know by this tell-tale sign: bond rates will rise and the dollar will stay flat or even fall. Let’s hope that’s not the case, ’cause things could get pretty ugly pretty quickly.
RScott said,
July 6, 2007 @ 2:44 pm
Kinda offtopic, but did you see the newest release of StrategyDesk? Version 1.3 woohoo! I called TD Ameritrade today to ask about getting more available data for back testing. They said that several people had called about this and they realize that 7 years is not long enough to fully test a strategy for all market conditions. I told them 20 years or more would be better. Great website! Cheers!
Will said,
July 6, 2007 @ 5:16 pm
RScott - Yep, downloaded v1.3 yesterday. Hope to do some work on it this weekend and see what it looks like. I did notice they specifically pointed out that theyv’e now added a function for AVERAGE VOLUME… yea! Looks like they’re still listening… this thing may come around and be a good piece of software yet
Ned said,
July 10, 2007 @ 5:17 am
Hey Will,
Nice Goog spotting! and don’t look now but our favorite iShort, dare I say AAPL, is looking toppy once more.
Have a great summer.
Will said,
July 10, 2007 @ 7:30 am
Thanks Ned! Our Quixotic Quest to Short Apple continues! I’d love to see a drop through 125 and then a retrace back up to it, though things never turn out quite so pretty. But I do still wait patiently for the opportunity to catch a falling Apple.