Archive for March, 2007

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Hallelujah- Ameritrade’s Conditional Orders

TDAmeritrade now gives us some more creative order options:

Conditional orders let you combine two or three individual orders that will, if filled, either cancel or trigger additional orders. Conditional orders are available for both stocks and single-leg option orders (in option-approved accounts).

The following types of conditional orders are available:

  1. OCA (one cancels another) - submit two orders simultaneously; if one order is filled, the other is canceled.
  2. OTA (one triggers another) - submit an order and if that order is filled, submit another order.
  3. OTT (one triggers two) - submit an order and if that order is filled, submit two additional orders.
  4. OT/OCA (one triggers an OCA order) - submit an order; if that order is filled, submit two orders simultaneously; if one of these orders is filled, cancel the other.
  5. OT/OTA (one triggers an OTA order) - submit an order; if that order is filled, submit another order. If that order is filled, submit a third order.

SPY and AAPL Charts - Inflection Point Near

Been a while since I posted some charts. That’s been intentional. I haven’t done the statistics to verify it yet, but over the years I’ve come to believe that the weeks after a day like Feb 27 are good times for swing traders to take a break. Daytraders, well, happy days are here again, but I only get to daytrade one day a week (maybe). For the swingers, and especially for the long-term traders, the wild oscillations after a volatility spike usually just serve to stop those positions out over and over. It broke, I’m short! Buying’s coming in, I’m long! It’s failing, I’m short! …stopped out at every turn.

I think, for many prudent long-term traders, Feb. 27 stopped them out (i.e. they went from long to cash), and they haven’t gotten a signal since. Swing traders got a nice little intermediate double-bottom, but the long trade off of it is now losing wind. Here’s the big picture on a weekly chart:

SPY
(DOWNthrust and pullback)

Me, I have one little short I put on with a stop above the Feb highs, and otherwise have been just daytrading a little and paying attention to other important things. Y’know, life.

I do like the way my old favorite McShort (AAPL) is looking:

AAPL

I’ll be sorely tempted if that one rolls over. With CNN, CNBC, Hollywood and 99% of the blogosphere so certain that Apple’s such an obvious buy, I can’t help but look for a place to sell it.


Turbotax Warning for Ameritrade Users, or How I Discovered I Was Rich

After my weekend adventure at work (see last post), I got home last night to discover my TurboTax waiting at the door. Turns out I didn’t need to save that five bucks after all. Turns out, I must be a millionaire.

If you’re an Ameritrade customer who uses Turbotax, beware: DO NOT ACCEPT TURBOTAX’S OFFER TO DOWNLOAD YOUR 1099-B FROM AMERITRADE! That was what I did at first, and actually thought to myself, “Wow, maybe I won’t have to turn backflips and say a chant with my eyelids inside out to get the tax stuff to work this year.” But I thought too soon. After it announced Retrieve Successful!, I glanced up at the running tally of my amount owed/ refund, and immediately did a screen capture:

my tax balance

That’s right. After TT eliminated most of my deductions (hey, that 2% threshold is pretty high for a millionaire), it announced that I owe $1,312,256 in Federal Taxes. And here I was fretting over balancing my checkbook.

The problem is that when you allow TurboTax to download your 1099s directly, the cost basis of your trades does not flow through, only the figure required to be reported to the IRS (which is gross sales), and your entire trading activity for the year shows up as income. And anyone who daytrades knows how easy it is to take a bare-bones pattern-day-trade account, pop in and out 10 or 20 times ina day, and rack up multiple hundreds of thousands in gross trades with a net of maybe a hundred dollars gained or lost here and there.

If you do trade thru TDAmeritrade and file your taxes with TurboTax, here’s the solution that worked for me:

  • Allow TurboTax to connect to AMTD to download your 1099s

  • Uncheck the 1099-B and “retrieve” only the 1099-INT

  • Log onto your AMTD account and go to the Gain/Loss section of your account under the Portfolio & Accounts tab

  • Select Get Report As TXF File

  • Now go back to TurboTax and import that TXF file

As far as I can tell, the numbers came out accurately after that (and after deleting the multi-million dollar earlier import, of course).

Importing the TXF file completely fills out your schedule D, and things look a little more realistic. Beware, however, that if you allow TT to retrieve all the 1099s and import the TXF file, it still shows the “whoa nelly” figure, so you must be careful not to accept the auto-download of the 1099-B.

For someone with only a few trades for the year and a big income (i.e. the opposite of me on both counts), this problem may tag a few grand onto your income without your noticing if you simply “trust” TurboTax, and result in your paying taxes that you don’t owe.

I’m an old country farm boy. I don’t trust no one.

Oh, and do I need to add a disclaimer, like “I’m not a tax professional” or something. Is that not crystal clear? Duh!


Fatigue, Delirium and Time Distortion

And not in a good way.

There are some amazing charts I want to post (the “correction” to the upside may be subsiding), a couple of soapboxes I’ve got in the corner I need to climb onto, and some Real Estate “news” I wanna set straight. However…

I went to work at the (ICK!) regular job Saturday. Graveyard guy calls in sick (again- he did this 2 weeks ago). I’m stuck working thru the night (and missed a helluva birthday party, I’m told). One of our day people is sick Sunday, so I go home, catch a 2-hr nap, then go back and work till 9pm Sunday. Go home, sleep a few hours, back at 0730 this morning to work the Cancer Center.

All in all, I worked 34 hours out of 52, and a stretch of 26 out of 30 within that.

Which brings me to the Time Distortion. I noticed today that I could glance at the clock, work 15 minutes, then glance at the clock again, and only 5 minutes may have passed. And one time an entire hour passed in under 10 minutes. It’s amazing what happens when we mess with those little internal chronographs we take for granted.

A friend tells me that reminds him of his entire college career…


Genentech, Amgen and More - News from the Front

I discussed pretty extensively in a post last November the fact that I expected to see sales of Genentech’s (ticker: DNA) Avastin explode in light of the fact that it had been approved for NSCLC at a dose of 15 mg/kg, three times the previously-approved dose of 5 mg/kg for colorectal cancer.

In the meantime, I’ve been seeing some limited usage of Avastin for yet another huge market, and the one which gets a disproportionate amount of publicity- breast cancer. In some studies, high-dose Avastin (15 mg/kg and even higher) has sometimes appeared to improve outcomes in some cases.

But the usage of high-dose Avastin does not seem to be taking off, even with FDA approval, and the matter deserves a little deeper investigation.

At first blush, the high-dose approval would appear to be screaming-good news for Genentech. However (and this is a BIG however), what’s not being publicized quite so well is that, possibly because of Avastin’s anti-angiogenesis mechanism of action, the high doses seem to have a noticeable incidence of very serious GI side effects, particularly ulcers and perforations, sometimes life-threatening.

Anti-angiogenesis is great when it comes to attacking tumors. Prevent the formation of new blood vessels, choke off their blood supply, they die. Wonderful. And it “doesn’t attack healthy cells the way ‘traditional’ chemo does”, an implication that this is some kind of magic bullet.

It’s not. To say “it doesn’t attack healthy cells the way traditional chemo does” is a qualified statement, but the marketing people won’t mind at all (wink) if you and maybe a few hundred thousand healthcare professionals (wink) misinterpret that as “it doesn’t attack healthy cells.”

A Little Drug-Marketing Background from an Insider

This type of thing is not unique. It’s not even uncommon. It’s one of the most effective marketing techniques drug companies use, and they use it extensively. Aventis developed the market for one of the most successful drugs in history, Lovenox, by emphasizing the tagline that it “didn’t need to be monitored like regular Heparin.” [a clearer statment would have been “the very possible risk of bleeding complications with Lovenox cannot be reliably predicted with the clotting tests performed on unfractionated heparin”- I think you can see the difference in connotation by the wording they used] Healthcare in general dropped the last three words from Aventis’ tagline (like anyone, we simplify and remember the short version), misinterpreted it in exactly the way they were supposed to, and to this day we have many, many (many) physicians who mis-dose Lovenox, particularly in patients with renal dysfunction, because they think “Lovenox is safe,” and “Lovenox doesn’t have to be monitored,” and (contrary to Aventis’ official recommendation), “Lovenox doses don’t have to be adjusted.” The campaign to educate them otherwise has been amazingly weak and ineffective (wink).

A much more recent and public example has been the marginally-effective HPV vaccine developed by Merck, which whenever discussed in public was discussed with the misnomer “Cancer Vaccine,” not by accident, and the media did the rest. Well, the media and some good Friends of Merck who happen to hold high political positions and command a lot of attention. As a healthcare professional, this angered me, but I’ve seen it before. As a father of three daughters, it outrages me to this day, which is why I haven’t discussed it much publicly. I might lose my temper. This is NOT a miracle drug and this will NOT eradicate cervical cancer, and the science says as much, but it’s not science that gets the headlines- it’s the marketing jargon.

And Amgen’s drug Vectibix, which the “anal-ists” were proclaiming to be the next blockbuster? It has a documented incidence of potentially-severe side effects of… and this is not a misprint… approximately 90 percent. Not 0.9%, not even 9% (which would be very notable). If you bet your life savings on Amgen, do it because of their marketing prowess and political power, not because of this drug.

What Does This Say About Avastin?

Back to Avastin. I would also point out that anti-angiogenesis is not synonymous with “good” in most realms other than tumor destruction. In fact, various drugs and viral vectors (yes, volunteers being infected with a strain of Herpes on purpose) have been studied for many years now in an attempt to promote angiogenesis in heart patients, which might lengthen their survival, improve their life, etc by providing increased blood flow to the heart via newly-grown coronary blood vessels.

This gets to the overall point that drug companies universally do not publicize: a drug’s beneficial effect is because of how it works, and very often a drug’s detrimental side effects are, guess what, because of how it works. COX-2 inhibitors (the entire “Vioxx” class) are great for arthritis pain, because they inhibit COX-2. They aren’t so great for the heart, because they inhibit COX-2!

Avastin at very high doses seems to be doing “something” which leads to an increased incidence of GI tissue necrosis, damage and perforation. GI tissue is highly-vascularized, which means it’s continually growing millions of new blood vessels to support the tissue turnover and proliferation. In other words, GI tissue is big on angiogenesis. I haven’t seen any published studies which definitively show why Avastin has the detrimental effects it does (such studies are -wink- very difficult to find funding for), but there appears to be a potential connection here, IMHO.

The upshot? Avastin’s high-dose use in NSCLC isn’t rocketing skyward as was expected, and the potential new use in breast cancer may be questionable.

That’s my version of fudamental analysis. You… (hey, are you still listening?)… you keep an eye on that darned chart and watch those stops!


Attorney General Should Resign for Playing Politics with US Attorney Positions

Attorney General Janet Reno today demanded the prompt resignation of all United States Attorneys, leading the Federal prosecutor in the District of Columbia to suggest that the order could be tied to his long-running investigation of Representative Dan Rostenkowski, a crucial ally of President Clinton.
fom The New York Times, 03/24/93

U.S. Attorney Jay B. Stephens yesterday made the investigation of House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Dan Rostenkowski (D-Ill.) Exhibit A in his case for staying on as the District’s chief federal prosecutor. Being forced to leave now, Stephens said, would disrupt the sensitive probe of the powerful Democratic congressman.
(from The Washington Post, 03/25/93)

I note that Attorney General Janet Reno has demanded the resignation of all 93 U.S. attorneys. If memory serves, this is an unprecedented act. I find Reno’s action somewhat anomalous in light of the testimony she gave at her confirmation hearing, in which she stated, “I keep politics out of what I do.” If Reno was being forthright in her testimony, the reconciliation of her action with her statements can only mean that she was instructed to do so…
(from the San Jose Mercury News, 4/7/93)

I can’t seem to find the headlines where the honorable Senator Schumer, being the righteous man that he is, sought subpoenas in order to “get to the bottom of this.” However, I’m certain he must have been calling for Ms. Reno’s resignation…


Stuart Rosenberg Dead at 79

You may have seen in my “favorite movies” list over in the left sidebar that Cool Hand Luke is in my Top 20. Heard today that Stuart Rosenberg has died. I have to admit the thing I’ll always remember about hearing this news on the way to work this morning is that the Bob & Tom show played “Strother Martin Does Stairway to Heaven” in tribute. I believe it was done by Tim Wilson.


The Wisdom of Art Cashin, and More StrategyDesk Tips

This morning I overheard Erin on CNBC speaking to Art Cashin who, along with Rick Santelli and Bill Seidman, make up the bulk of CNBC’s real wisdom all rolled into their few minutes per week of exposure.

Erin: So word has it that private investment is buying much of the subprime mortgage paper at pennies on the dollar. Is that evidence that the problem is correcting itself?

Art: Well, Erin, vultures are needed in any ecosystem…


StrategyDesk Formula-Writing Tip of the Day:

Be aware of the difference between the high of the last 30 minutes and the high of the last 30-minute bar.

StrategyDesk’s Bars are clock-dependent (for lack of a better term). Its 30-minute bars go from 0900-0930, 0930-1000, etc. If you use the Bar[High,30,1] formula at 0945, you’ll get the high for the 0900-0930 period, no matter what happened from 0930-0945.

If you want the true “high for the past 30 minutes” at any point in the day, say from 0915-0945, use the PriceRangeChannels function instead, as in PriceRangeChannels[Upper,30,0,1].


And remember the infuriating formula in the so-called Syntax Guide that goes like this

Bar[High,90]*(Bar[Hour,90] = 9) + Bar[High,90,1]*(Bar[Hour,90] = 11) + Bar[High,90,2]*(Bar[Hour,90] = 12) + Bar[High,90,3]*(Bar[Hour,90] = 14) + Bar[High,90,4]*(Bar[Hour,90] = 15)

StrategyDesk’s 90-minute bars appear to go as follows:

  • Bar 1: 0930-1059 EST

  • Bar 2: 1100-1229 EST

  • Bar 3: 1230-1359 EST

  • Bar 4: 1400-1529 EST

  • Bar 5: 1530-1600 EST

That’s right- the last “90-minute bar” is only 31 minutes long.

Anyway, from that little bit of detective work I’ve decided one error in the above formula is that the “12″ in Bar[Hour,90] = 12 should actually be a “13″. I’m pretty sure there’s a problem with the “15″ statement as well, but I’m too tired tonight to think any farther into it… more work to do here.

Update: Upon further review (and after a few hours’ sleep), the formula stands as written by AMTD. They right, me wrong. What I failed to observe last night was that the Hour part of the formula stands for the hour in which the current bar begins, and since the 90-minute bars (by my own description above) begin at 0930, 1100, 1230, 1400 and 1530, we do indeed only need statements for the hours of 9, 11, 12, 14 and 15. Dang. Happily, this realization cleared the cobwebs up enough that I can now construct various time of day formulas. Check my Formula Reference Page for updates.


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