Classic short setup on LPAA. See below, it has broken down solidly below support, and has made a minor retrace back up to that support (now resistance). A resumption of the downtrend would be a great place to short with a nice tight stop just above resistance:
I’ve held it all inward, God knows I’ve tried
But it’s an awful awakening in a country boy’s life
To look in the mirror in total surprise
At the hair on my shoulders, and the age in my eyes.
(from “Amanda” by Waylon Jennings)
But here’s one poem I ran across that resonated:
At times it’s like there is a small planet
inside me.
And on this planet, there are many small wars,
Yet none big enough to make a real difference.
The major countries, Mind and Heart,
Have called a truce for now.If this planet had a ruler,
No one remembers him well.
All decisions are made by committee.
Yet there are a few pictures of the old dictator.
How youthful he looked on his big horse!
How bright his eyes!
He was ready to conquer the world.(”Turning Forty” by Kevin Griffith)
The Qs broke above the magic 44.86 level today, clearing the range of the last couple of months, and printing a “higher high.” As a correctly-drawn trendline should go thru the lowest low preceding the highest high, today’s action redefines the longer-term trend from this:
To this:
The December downturn is now a pullback into the uptrend, instead of its break and failure. Hindsight is everything, no? This is another wonderful example of how things aren’t nearly as clear during as they are after.
I’ve mentioned recently that I was optimistic about the slight spark in the economic reports which may indicate a bit of growth, a touch of inflation, and even (gulp) a little strengthening of the dollar. This would be great news for our economy, and for the stock market. Whether the apearance of strength is real or just a mirage remains to be seen (I believe the correct expression is that we Need More Cowbell).
Cowbell aside, the chart is what matters in the end. With the new high, we at the newer, more patient DummySpots are watching for a thrust and pullback on diminishing volume, at which time we will look to enter in the direction of the primary trend, which is now, of course, up.
I’m treating myself to my FBOTY (First Beer of the Year) in celebration of the completion of the project I’ve been obsessed with for the last week or so: Overseeing a coordinated conspiracy to send a wonderful lady on the trip of her life. Myrna has worked at The Hospital for 36 years, and has been a friend and 2nd mother to many people over the course of those years. Knowing I had no living parents or grandparents, she “adopted” me and, more importantly, my girls quite a while ago. My daughters have gotten countless Christmas presents, homemade Easter baskets and plates of cookies from “Grandy.”
We’ve known for weeks she was retiring. Everyone kept saying, “We should do something.” But nothing materialized. Finally last week, I noticed that everyone wanted to do “something,” but no one was actually doing “anything.” And I wasn’t gonna let this one get by. So I said, “Gimme the damned ball.”
Being the proper old-school geek that I am, I set up a special website, a special email and a custom Paypal donation button, and began getting the word out. Yada, yada, yada, pass it on.
During the fundraising part of the scheme, I made one crucial decision: No one would know how much anyone else gave. No comparing notes. No special recognition. This is about Myrna, not a grab for the spotlight.
And then an amazing thing happened… They say your true character is who you are when no one is watching. As it turns out, your true character also shows when you give money anonymously.
Suddenly, the people who are so eager to flout their material possessions, their oh-so-caring and open-minded political views, where they live and what they drive, and especially their “altruism” and “philanthropy” (the kind of philanthropy Thoreau writes about in Walden)… those people were nowhere to be found, or were tossing in token amounts to avoid looking like complete assholes. If they couldn’t reap the recognition, they weren’t interested.
I thought we would never make our goal. I started getting frustrated. But I (mostly) kept it to myself. I decided if they were going to be that selfish, I’d cover the cost myself and not tell a soul. I was determined this was gonna happen for Myrna.
Then, slowly, quietly, people began passing by and slipping me checks and twenties, and hundred-dollar bills. Or giving thru the Paypal link. Or calling me up and saying, “What’s your address? I’m mailing you some money.” The people you’d never expect. The people who go about their business and don’t make a big show of their living or their giving. It was as if knowing they were free to give from the heart liberated them somehow. I believe JC said something about those who “do their alms before men” and how “they have their reward.” Guess he had a point.
Today, on Myrna’s last day, we presented her with her gift, her trip. Not only that, we had hundreds of dollars in cash we gave her for shopping money where we’d run over our goal. I finally had to start turning people away when they (quietly) approached me with money. And there were so many who said, “If we don’t have enough, let me know and I’ll give more.”
And so I’m reminded again of what I saw so poignantly after Katrina down here- there are the noisy few who talk so loud and pat each other on the back so fervently that they come to actually believe they know better and either speak for everyone else or purport to tell them how to think.
They’re big on redistribution of income, because they’ve never really been poor and think that’s the “philanthropic” thing to do. They think Big Brother should confiscate wealth in the name of society, when all that really happens is that the money gets sapped up by greedy beaurocratic SOBs and the buddies they arrange contracts with, and it never accomplishes a thing towards helping the people who really need help.
When it comes right down to it, whether with catastrophic hurricaines or simple retirement gifts, when the Uncle Sams and FEMAs and posturing loudmouths are nowhere to be found, it’s the quiet, caring majority who step forward, give selflessly and take care of their fellow man, and prove to be the true salvation of society.
A look at The Market Today:
Using the Trader Vic
This is not a clear point to enter a trade in either direction. For someone who has been long, or for my friends who have a zillion-dollar retirement account riding an index fund, the break of the trendline is a signal to, at the least, put their finger on the trigger and get ready to sell. Some, with capital preservation in mind, already sold with a plan to re-enter if the price climbs back above the trendline. That would be my plan if I had a zillion-dollar retirement account. Or a zillion dollars, period.
We see that the Qs have broken their trendline a bit more decisively, and are currently in the support/ resistance battle that has set up just above the 43.00 level (consider the prior two months’ action and the Jan ‘06 high).
A downward thrust through 43.00 could provide a nice short entry point, while a break of the Nov ‘06 44.86 high would flip everything and cause us to move our fingers from the red button over to the green one.
Once again, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention AAPL, my muse, my demon:
Apple has either broken down and is completing its first retrace into the newly-formed downtrend, or it has completed a pullback into a big bad uptrend. I’ve found if you print the chart out and look at it upside down in a mirror while standing on your head, the picture becomes much clearer.
As for me, Apple is always and everywhere a short opportunity waiting to happen. I see this as a break- and- retrace below the prior S/R level of 86.40:
I’ll be looking short if this little up-thrust fails, with an intial stop above 86.40. If the thrust continues and breaks through 86.40 on good volume, I’ll be back in “wait for setup” mode.
That’s just me, and remember, this is not an objective reading of AAPL. I allow myself to be completely biased in this one case, ’cause me and Apple, we have a special relationship.
The recent postive economic news, and the small, slim, skinny, outside possibility of a spark of growth and inflation has me feeling a little optimistic. I’ve written for months now about how our economy should not be stalling with money still as free and loose as it is, and I’m hoping maybe this is a first sign it’s not. But I think it’s still less- than- even odds.
Positive growth and a little inflation would be great for the economy, and the stock market. So with the charts looking like they’re trying to break, what the hell am I saying?
I’m saying that I think I’ve discovered a label for myself. I’m not a perma-bull in anybody’s book. I’ve wondered, with my history of a sour big-picture outlook, whether that makes me a perma-bear. Turns out, nope to both. I think I must be a perma-contrarian!