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A look at The Market Today:

Using the Trader Vic method of drawing a “correct” trendline (drawn from the lowest low of the trend to the highest low before the highest high), we see that the S&P has, just barely, broken through its uptrend line.

This is not a clear point to enter a trade in either direction. For someone who has been long, or for my friends who have a zillion-dollar retirement account riding an index fund, the break of the trendline is a signal to, at the least, put their finger on the trigger and get ready to sell. Some, with capital preservation in mind, already sold with a plan to re-enter if the price climbs back above the trendline. That would be my plan if I had a zillion-dollar retirement account. Or a zillion dollars, period.

We see that the Qs have broken their trendline a bit more decisively, and are currently in the support/ resistance battle that has set up just above the 43.00 level (consider the prior two months’ action and the Jan ‘06 high).

A downward thrust through 43.00 could provide a nice short entry point, while a break of the Nov ‘06 44.86 high would flip everything and cause us to move our fingers from the red button over to the green one.

Once again, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention AAPL, my muse, my demon:

Apple has either broken down and is completing its first retrace into the newly-formed downtrend, or it has completed a pullback into a big bad uptrend. I’ve found if you print the chart out and look at it upside down in a mirror while standing on your head, the picture becomes much clearer.

As for me, Apple is always and everywhere a short opportunity waiting to happen. I see this as a break- and- retrace below the prior S/R level of 86.40:

I’ll be looking short if this little up-thrust fails, with an intial stop above 86.40. If the thrust continues and breaks through 86.40 on good volume, I’ll be back in “wait for setup” mode.

That’s just me, and remember, this is not an objective reading of AAPL. I allow myself to be completely biased in this one case, ’cause me and Apple, we have a special relationship.

The recent postive economic news, and the small, slim, skinny, outside possibility of a spark of growth and inflation has me feeling a little optimistic. I’ve written for months now about how our economy should not be stalling with money still as free and loose as it is, and I’m hoping maybe this is a first sign it’s not. But I think it’s still less- than- even odds.

Positive growth and a little inflation would be great for the economy, and the stock market. So with the charts looking like they’re trying to break, what the hell am I saying?

I’m saying that I think I’ve discovered a label for myself. I’m not a perma-bull in anybody’s book. I’ve wondered, with my history of a sour big-picture outlook, whether that makes me a perma-bear. Turns out, nope to both. I think I must be a perma-contrarian!