Anybody else old enough to remember the “We Wear Short Shorts” commercials?
I’ve said before that the market likes to make its moves with as few people on board as possible. The way that extrapolates to our trading: remember the times where we see a setup, take a trade, then get whipsawed, stopped, spanked, and stopped some more until we finally throw the computer out the window and ignore it all for a while, only to come back and see we missed the big move by the skin of our teeth.
What to do? Well somewhere between giving up and not trading at all and going on TILT and overtrading there lies the path of backing up, taking a deep breath (or seven), then walking right back in and doing what you know. Keep on keepin’ on, as we say down here.
Soon, Mr. Jobs. Soon. (from last night’s post)
And me, I know Apple has been setting up over 89.50 for some time now. Gave Mr. Dow and Mr. Jones my notice last night that I weren’t skeered, and today they called my bluff:
Would have been a beautiful daytrade, but I was at the Cancer Center sniffing chemo fumes. But my assistant, Ms. Stop Limit, was ever watchful and got me short for the swing trade entry I’ve been anticipating.
Here’s a look at it on a daily chart:
It would take a massive rally to undo this break. Not impossible by any means, but improbable, which is what traders and p*ker players are looking for. Not certainty, not clairvoyance. Technical Analysis is about gauging probabilities, not predicting the future, and the misunderstanding of the difference is what gets TA its negative hocus-pocus image and “cult of the naive” following.
Also a little more on Q (that devious fellow). I’ve written many times before about the significance of high-volume bars, and have noted that since such a bar formed on the Qs on 11/8/06, the increasing price on diminishing volume has looked very much like topping action. Tonight I want to point out the significance of the 43.26 area I mentioned last night:
Not only would a break through the 43.20s be a failure of the recent range low, it would represent a longer-term thrust- and- failure above that 11/8 high-volume bar. Coincident levels of support and resistance. Keep an eye on the 43.20s!
Of course I can’t neglect dollars and gold. Look at a current chart of the dollar vs. euro and see if you don’t spot a nice little flag in that upper right corner:
If/When that little pullback breaks to the upside (i.e. dollar continues to weaken), the price of gold will increase, and I’ll have another swing trade entry. Here’s the GLD chart with that setup:
We could use today’s Dragonfly Doji to enter a trade, but with that resistance just above at 63.13, might as well wait for a break of that as a stronger entry and use the bottom of today’s bar as a stop. Of course, if the dollar and gold continue their pullback, the entry and stop points will change based on the chart.
Time for sleep. Nite.