Latest QQQQ and AAPL setups; Daytrades on NVLS and SAN
Just watching and waiting on the Qs:
A break below 43.26 could spell swing short entry. Right now, a reasonable stop would be above the Tuesday high of 44.55. And of course there’s the 11/24 high of 44.86 as either a breakout point or a stop, should we continue to wander.
Had an order in today to sell Apple short on a break of 89.50. Got all the way down to 89.67, and didn’t quite trigger:
Soon, Mr. Jobs, soon.
Couple of trades this morning before work. One was on Novellus:
Nice steady pullback and break. Got short 500 shares on the break at 33.18. It proceeded to head down obediently, and I would have normally taken off half of the position near the opening range low (guaranteed resistance). However, today I had to be at work at the ICK! other job at 1030 (1130 EST), and as I was heading towards the door at just after 1010, it tagged the O.R. low, and I decided to go ahead and cover the entire 500 shares since I wouldn’t be able to monitor it properly after that. Turned out to be a good decision today:
It came all the way back to the day’s high, then failed again, providing an even more profitable trade entry off of the 1300 EST Dummy Spot. Alas, I was in the surgery satellite pharmacy discussing hyaluronidase right about then. Too bad.
On the other trade, I basically broke even, but I keep thinking there’s got to be some way to catch a move like this:
I had gotten short on the break of the 0950 EST bar’s low of 46.37. On the break, the price just surged downward, then started ticking back up. I had plenty of time to cover, and was sitting at the computer watching it. Just had no parameters for dealing with such a situation. Here’s a zoom-in to the 1-min chart to show the action:
I ended up covering for breakeven after commissions, plus a dollar or two. Left quite a bit on the table here.
So here’s the question: Anyone got any suggestions as to how to capture these sudden moves… sell on a break of the .786 Fib of any wide-range thrust bar like this? (Note: the “usual” Fib levels gave no clear clue)… Cover if you’re on board for a doubling of the day’s range? Me, I got nuthin’. Comments welcome.
Lloyd said,
December 7, 2006 @ 7:35 pm
Will,
I have no idea why you even emailed me the other day. I look at what you’ve just posted and I’m in awe of your knowledge. Here I am struggling to pick a side to the market while you are executing the information that is provided to you by the markets. Brother, if you’re struggling with your trades, then I truly hope to endure your misery immediately. I had a tough time spotting the dummy trades today and when you can’t spot the dummy, you know the dummy is really you.
I passed up on BVF beacuse of what I saw the stock do yesterday, I almost shorted QCOM @1:45 when I saw the SOX tanking but I pulled out beacuse I traded it long at 10:30. I also wanted to short ZUMZ beacuse it rocketed while the market crashed and created a nice inverted hammer far far away from the 5 MA and was due to retrace. Talk about a psychological disadvantage. I envy the awareness and how good traders almost seemlessly execute their edge (right or wrong). Anyway keep up the good work and hope you grow that account.
Will said,
December 8, 2006 @ 12:59 am
Lloyd- the other night I had “ring-around-the-ass from sitting on the pity potty too long,” and I appreciate your tolerance. As for awe, I’m terribly flattered, but I think the most impressive thing about my trading experience is that I continue writing the copycat song of Paul Simon’s “Fifty Ways to Leave Your Lover,” and mine’s called “There Must Be A Million Ways to Lose Your Money.” I’m on verse 1,327 and still going!
I see what you mean about BVF, the way it opened gap up and ran yesterday, pulled back, faked a breakout, then drizzled downward the rest of the day. However, I would note that yesterday’s Opening Range high was 15% above the previous day’s close, and when they start that high, they very often don’t perform. Today, however, the OR hi was only 4% above yesterday’s close, so when it pulled back for a few bars then broke out, it was probably a little better candidate. Same stock, different context.
So, with Qualcomm, you’re saying you pulled out prematurely???
I’m looking at the chart of ZUMZ- yeah that 1200 EST inverted hammer on the 30min bars looks pretty impressive, but a trade on the 30min bars doesn’t look like it would’ve been profitable from there, so to me it seems your ability to walk away from it was a demonstration of your skills and correct intuition.
Thanks for the note!
Lloyd said,
December 8, 2006 @ 8:23 am
Will,
You just taught me another thing. I will look to see if the OR high is 15% higher than the previous day from now on.
As for QCOM, I exited early on my 2 & 3rd entries. However, those entries should not have even been made. Disciplined I was not.
ZUMZ, I didn’t walk away, I was just scared and I did not look at the 30 min chart as my mind was never truly ready to commit to the short.
However, upon reflection, I realize what I’m doing wrong. I will be writing it up this weekend. Please read it and see what you think.
Also, thanks for taking the time out to write back each and every annoying email/comment of mine.
Will said,
December 9, 2006 @ 9:26 am
That 15% thing is just from something I noticed a few months back- just scrolling through charts of gappers, it seemed like many of the ones that gapped way up and ran even higher in the first few minutes seemed to run sideways or trickle down for the rest of the day. I finally decided to eliminate from my candidates anything over about $15 that went over 10% above the previous day’s close during the opening range.
I’ve still watched them, and it’s a pretty good rule of thumb. Most fail. However, the ones that continue to run, REALLY run. Perhaps something like X’s “beyond the Fib extension” or similar would work, but I just don’t trade ‘em unless I see a new high for the day (i.e. they break completely out of that high O.R.); even then there are just too many other candidates that provide opportunities to lose money trade!