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Everybody is happy. Gas is cheap. Oil stocks? All sucking wind, of course. Major breakdown from long-term uptrend. Or is it?
(Me, in my post 13 days ago)

Oil experienced the largest percentage gain today since March. News headlines announce that this is “defying expectations“. Really? Whose expectations? I’ll tell you whose. THEY. They talk a lot, don’t they? Problem is, if you listen to THEY, you will always be trading behind the curve, a day late and a dollar short.

Ignore THEY. Listen to YOU. Can you think for yourself? Can you see for yourself? Do you trust your own judgement? Then turn the TV down, turn the news headlines off, and Trade That Damned Chart!

Here’s the most recent trade I’ve written about, a bottom reversal I was fortunate enough to catch on JOYG two days ago:

My stop is just trailing along, only at 33.50 so far. I don’t know how long this little run will last. I’d expect a retest of that bottom pretty quickly, but I could be wrong. That’s what stops are for– for those of us who can’t predict the future, and so don’t try. We leave that to THEY.

Another out-of-favor commodity, and its stocks, caught my eye today. Gold popped back above $600 an ounce. What did THEY SAY about Newmont Mining? The headlines are Newmont sees lower gold sales in 2006, 2007 and Newmont Mining Shares Sink to Year Low. Sounds rough, no? But gold turned up, and look at the chart:

If you read much of my mumbling, you’ll know I place great importance on high-volume days, particularly after an extended move. Newmont fell below its 52-week low today, then climbed back on massive volume, printing a nice hammer with its tail hanging down in the netherworld. A hammer like that can serve as a one-bar trade setup.

Oh, and I should mention that I’m not exactly a gold bug, but I do view gold prices more as changes in the value of the dollars than in the value of the metal. Maybe I’m a currency bug. Or, maybe I’m just crazy.

Am I saying you should get long NEM? Nope, unless YOU see something. Never listen to what I say. After all, to you, I’m just part of THEY.