A Little Poker Lesson
Anybody else occasionally like to watch professional poker? The parallels between trading for a living and playing poker for a living are unbelievable.
The pros know the odds at every step in the game. The better their odds, the more they risk. If there are 9 players at the table and the pro has a Q-J, they will likely lay it down if anyone bets. If there are only two players, the pro may bet the hell out of the same Q-J. They always try to keep their money on the side of probability.
The pros don’t expect to win every time they get a great hand. A great setup does not “mean” they are going to win, it only places probability on their side. If they lose a hand, they don’t write it off and say, “I’ll never bet that hand again.” Yet novice traders do this all the time with good trade setups that happened to fail.
I’m watching the opening round of the 2006 World Series of Poker as I write. On the first day, players like Phil Helmuth, Doyle Brunson and Sam Farha have all been eliminated, and there are complete idiots with big chip stacks. Does that mean these people are better at poker than the world-class players? NO!
Does the fact that some loudmouth at the water cooler has made 50% on his money in the last two months and thinks trading is easy mean that he’s a better trader than you, who are diligently trading your plan? NO!
Where do all the work and skill actually pay off? In the long run. Keep following your methods. Keep modifying, evolving, improving. Ignore the lucky idiots. They come, they get lucky, they eventually blow up, and they go away, making room for the next batch.
You- you stay around, make a living doing what you love, smile at the luck they mistake as skill, and just keep wearing your funny glasses.