Fasten Your Seatbelts

January 31, 2006 at 8:43 am by Will

Let’s look at some indications that the market may be poised to make a large move:

  • The FOMC meets today. The expected quarter-point move in the Fed Funds rate target may seem unnecessary in light of last week’s extremely weak GDP figure. A failure to raise the Funds rate would be unexpected. Either one could move the market.

  • It’s Greenspan’s last meeting. Everyone hopes that Bernanke will be a great Chairman, but whether you agree with Greenspan’s tactics or not (and I’m sometimes in the “not” category), there’s no question that he’s one of the most brilliant public figures in our lifetime. There is plenty of uneasiness over how Bernanke will handle the stick of dynamite being handed to him. That could move the market.

  • State of the Union tonight. What Bush says, particularly in regards to Iran, could move the market.

  • Tomorrow is the first day of “the month after” an extremely volatile January. The Big Guys will be in with both feet.

  • The indexes are all hovering near the point of the recent range breakout and failure.

  • On the Qs, the volume yesterday was the lowest this year, and not only was the bar an nr7, it was an nr19! That looks like an impending move in any technician’s book.

  • Google reports earnings this evening. I don’t try to trade particular stocks off of earnings news (anymore), but this one is important because of its effect on the overall market.

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