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A heads up on what I’m guessing is gonna be some bad news come January.

I try to avoid Wal-Mart like the plague between Thanksgiving and New Year’s Day. You can’t get in, you can’t get around, and you darn sure can’t get out. So for those few weeks of the year, I do it the old-fashioned way when possible: I buy my groceries at the grocery store, my hardware at the hardware store… you get the picture.

Tonight at supper we got the surprise news that the girls have a) some kind of project and b) some kind of presentation due tomorrow at school, and they needed all kinds of posterboard, markers, macaroni (don’t ask) and glue. I needed milk & coke (here in the Deep South, “coke” means any “pop” or “soda” — when I was young we said things like “orange coke” and “grape coke”!) soooo, our only one-stop option was the dreaded Super Wal-Mart.

When we entered the store, I was stunned. I HAVE NEVER SEEN SO FEW PEOPLE IN WAL-MART IN DECEMBER. EVER. It was like shopping on a Tuesday morning in June.

I’ve heard all the blurbs on CNBC about how well the retailers are doing this Christmas season. Everyone gushing good news. I’ve seen that big run in the retail stocks along with the ubiquitous Fall Rally. Wal-Mart up from <43 to over 50 in two months. Over 15% at one point. That’s a helluva move.

However, I’m a firm believer that your own eyes can often be your best source of inside information, no matter what the “experts” say. Walk into a K-Mart in 2001 and tell me the management isn’t letting that company go to hell. Walk into a Toys-R-Us right now. They aren’t even trying to compete.

What am I saying here? I’m saying I don’t care what the faces on TV say. Wal-Mart is not as busy as it should be, that’s gotta affect the top (and bottom) line, and I’ll be watching the chart closely for signs that this stock distribution propped up by propaganda…er, “positive spin,” is ending and the path of least resistance (down) emerges.